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UKRAINE CRISIS: ENERGY IMPACT

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  • Energy Intelligence’s external break-even price modeling indicates that the 2024 average price needed by Opec-plus producers will rise to about $74/bbl. This increase is driven by output cuts as well as current account balances moderating after 2022. The average break-even price is forecast to climb to $77/bbl in 2025 and continues to climb afterwards. We continue to expect group strategy to be supportive of prices above $80/bbl, with leadership watching Q1’24 closely. While most will see their break-evens rise, underperforming members are likely to see faster increases. Distinct from fiscal break-evens, external break-evens measure the oil price at which a country’s current account will balance.
    Thu, Dec 14, 2023
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