Is a hurricane coming? Climate prediction center NOAA sees MA storm clouds gathering

Steve Jayne, a senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, is no stranger to hurricanes. He has been studying ocean effects for more than two decades, and he has flown into about a dozen hurricanes with the Air Force Reserves' "hurricane hunters" squadron.

Is it a little terrifying? Jayne shrugs it off. The Air Force pilots he flies with are experts at what they do, he said, so he doesn't sweat it too much.

Anything for the sake of science.

"They’re collecting wind data, and we drop instruments to measure the temperature of the water," he said, as if it were as simple as dipping a thermometer into the water collected in a back yard rain gauge.

While Jayne doesn't worry much about riding the turbulent, swirling currents of hurricanes, his scientific findings do give cause for pause.

"In general the sea surface is warming, due to climate change," he said.

Besides the impact warmer ocean temperatures have on marine ecosystems, they also impact the weather, offering a key ingredient to the formation of multiple -- some intense -- tropical storms and hurricanes.

That is what weather scientists have been seeing in the warming Atlantic for at least half-a-dozen years.

Get ready for stormy 2022

So what can be expected for 2022?

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center are predicting an "above normal" season this year.

The week-old season has already seen the first named storm -- Tropical Storm Alex -- form and pirouette into the Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida panhandle and into the Atlantic.

The season begins June 1 and continues until Nov. 30. According to NOAA, it's the seventh consecutive year  forecasters are expecting an  active Atlantic hurricane season, with a 65% chance of above-normal activity, a 25% chance of "near-normal" activity, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

A total of 14 to 21 named storms, designated if they feature wind speeds of 39 mph or higher, are predicted -- six to 10 of which could develop into hurricanes with wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. NOAA predicts three to six of those could become major category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher.

By comparison, a typical Atlantic hurricane season may see up to 14 named storms. Last year there were 21 named tropical storms, and in 2020 there were 30.

“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area 10 years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, in a release. 

NOAA stresses its outlook is "for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast."

How do the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico drive Atlantic hurricanes?

There are multiple drivers that make for an active hurricane season in the Atlantic,  one  is the ongoing La Nina effect, according to NOAA.

La Nina is a climate pattern arising from the Pacific Ocean, creating conditions for upwellings of cold water along the west coast, consequently pushing the jet stream further north. Jayne explained that this, in turn, weakens the vertical wind shear at elevations of 5,000 to 35,000 feet, opening the door to the formation of hurricanes -- stronger wind shear provides atmospheric stability that can pull apart forming storms.

Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and "an enhanced African monsoon" are also drivers, according to NOAA.

"An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African easterly waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons," NOAA noted in a release.

And what about those warming sea surface temperature Woods Holes' Jayne, and other scientists, have been observing in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea?

That plays a role, too -- and it's not a small one. Warmer waters may not necessarily lead to more storms, which tend to be more dependent on atmospheric conditions, but warmer ocean temperatures do work to generate much larger and more furious storms.

A key player is  the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, which itself is above normal temperature. It's one that Jayne and other scientists are always watching. Already the Loop is showing unusual behavior for the start of the season, flowing further north than  expected in June.

"The loop makes a big bowl of hot water right in the middle of the Gulf, so it provides any storm going across the Gulf of Mexico a nice, deep layer of warm water to feed off of," said Jayne.

This dynamic spawned monster storms, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Laura in 2020.

So what do hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have to do with New England? Jayne acknowledges  hurricanes crossing the Loop Current and picking up so much energy are headed for states like Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, so New Englanders may not see the effects of the Loop as something to worry about.

In reality, the only hurricane that matters to people "is the one that hits your house," he said. But "it is concerning that the Gulf has this potentially bad set up for potentially bad storms."

Warmer waters fuel bigger and more intense storms impacting wider areas, both directly and indirectly.

"It’s like Hurricane Ida last year," said Jayne. "Ida came across the Gulf and it rapidly intensified."

It came ashore at Louisiana last September as a Category 4 storm, the second strongest recorded to make landfall in the United States after Hurricane Katrina. Its effects were felt in the northeast, where it caused widespread flooding and spawned tornadoes -- even one on Cape Cod. Here in Massachusetts, the flooding led to closures of many roads, as well as the Boston Harbor tunnels, and disrupted Amtrak and the commuter rail. In some places, nine inches of rain or more fell.

"A lot of the rain that we got was water that evaporated off the Gulf of Mexico," Jayne said.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell noted in a release that Ida directly spanned nine states, "demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system."

“It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”

The start and end dates of the Atlantic hurricane season have changed

NOAA says its scientists are studying "the way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones."

Early onset of storms observed over the last seven years -- with some years seeing tropical storms forming in May or earlier -- have the National Weather Service considering officially calling for May 15 to be the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, instead of June 1.

The dates are selected "to encompass the majority of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (over 97%)," according to NOAA.

The dates have changed a couple of times since the Weather Bureau organized its  hurricane warning network in 1935. In that year, the Weather Bureau called for a telegraph line connecting the various centers from June 15 to Nov. 15.  In 1964, the official end of the season was changed to Nov. 30, and the following year the start date was moved to June 1.

How, and why, do storms get names?

There are 21 names on the 2022 Atlantic hurricane list, and one has already been used.

Next up: Bonnie, followed by Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter.

Storms haven't always been given named like this. Until the early 1950s, NOAA says, "tropical storms and hurricanes were tracked by year and the order in which they occurred during that year."

But short, easy-to-remember names make communications easier and avoids confusion when there is more than one storm forming at the same time.

"In the past, confusion and false rumors resulted when storm advisories broadcast from radio stations were mistaken for warnings concerning an entirely different storm located hundreds of miles away," NOAA states on its website.

In 1953, the U.S. began using female names for storms. In 1978, male and female names were used for naming storms in the Northern Pacific, and in 1979 male names were added to the list for the Atlantic storms.

The names, selected by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), are taken from the countries around the hurricane basins.

There are six lists of 21 names used on a six-year rotation. If there are more than 21 storms, there is a supplemental naming system -- both the 2020 and 2021 Atlantic hurricane seasons exhausted their name lists.

"The hurricane name lists include only 21 letters out of 26, because it is not easy to find six appropriate names (for the six rotating lists) starting with Q, U, X, Y and Z," the WMO states on its website. "In the interests of safety, names must be easily recognizable. In addition, they have to reflect a balance between French, Spanish and English names due to the geographical coverage of the storms throughout the Atlantic and Caribbean, and respect societal sensitivities."

Names of storms that are particularly costly or deadly get retired.

Since 2000, retired storm names have included: Keith, Allison, Iris, Michelle, Isidore, Lili, Fabian, Isabel, Juan, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, Dean, Felix, Noel, Gustav, Ike, Paloma, Igor, Tomas, Irene, Sandy, Ingrid, Erika, Joaquin, Matthew, Otto, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, Florence, Michael, Dorian, Laura, Eta, Iota and Ida.

The first storm names to be retired were Carol, Hazel and Edna, all three in 1954.