Independents cooling on Biden spells trouble for Democrats in 2022

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President Joe Biden is having a quiet week, but the decline in his popularity may be problematic for Democrats if it proves to be more than a summer slump.

Biden’s surprisingly steady approval ratings are starting to crater, though his disapproval numbers have consistently climbed during the first six months of his administration. That is a foreboding trend for Democrats before the 2022 midterm elections when the party is clinging onto power with slim majorities in the House and Senate.

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Barely half of the country approves of Biden’s job as president, his lowest average rating since his January inauguration, according to FiveThirtyEight. That number is down from a 55% high in March. While that may not be a dramatic drop, it means Biden is not infallible to the drumbeat of time or shifts in political currents.

Simultaneously, more than two-fifths of the country disapproves of Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight, compared to slightly more than a third who held the same opinion in February.

A dent in a president’s popularity after an initial honeymoon period is “a typical and early signal that the incumbent party is vulnerable in the midterms,” according to Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos.

“A lot can happen between now and then, and the downward trajectory could change to the upside, but this trend seems to align with historical norms,” he told the Washington Examiner.

The 2022 midterm election cycle will be determined by voter turnout, similar to elections before it. But for Paleologos, the contests and Biden’s waning popularity will also hinge on independent voters. Biden’s ploy to appeal to them with bipartisanship does not appear to be working.

“Right now, the latest national polls have Biden’s job approval among independents in the low 40s. If that number dips into the high 30s, it spells trouble ahead,” Suffolk University Political Research Center’s director said.

Paleologos’s observations are reflected in Gallup polling, according to Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. About 55% of independents approved of Biden in June. That number sank to 47% last month.

“Biden’s approval on handling the economy has consistently run a bit below his overall approval, while his approval handling COVID has run a bit above the overall,” Franklin said as the delta variant derails Biden’s pandemic response. “The current surge of COVID cases may affect both his overall and COVID approval as the spring and summer good news gives way to the current surge in cases.”

Biden needs to be mindful of independents, as partisans have become more committed to their party of choice since former President Barack Obama, Franklin said. Though it is an example of polarization that pre-dates Obama, Franklin cited a similar trend with economy approvals that has been evident since former President George W. Bush.

“Since the George W. Bush term, we’ve seen overall approval respond less to changes in the economy than we did in earlier decades,” he said. “Partisans are less willing to credit a president of the other party for good times and less willing to blame a president of their own party for bad outcomes.”

Republicans should heed Franklin’s warning about economic approvals as they workshop the party’s message for the 2022 midterm elections cycle.

Inflation, rising crime, and the southern border migrant crisis have emerged as Republicans’ most effective talking points to claw back a handful of seats in the House and one in the Senate. The GOP has already latched onto far-left rhetoric, including Missouri Rep. Cori Bush reiterating her calls to defund the police, and the $3.5 trillion price tag attached to the Democrat-only social welfare and climate reconciliation bill. That is on top of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan bricks-and-mortar infrastructure measure.

To counter Republicans, House Democrats were sent home with instructions to sell the bipartisan infrastructure package, middle-class tax cuts, and lower healthcare costs during the August recess. Biden has stayed at the White House as the Senate remains in session to pass the bipartisan deal.

“We expect the president to be here for a few days early next week,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters last week. “As you know, the Senate also is expected to be, and we will keep you updated as we know more specific details about his travel plans.”

Psaki and other White House aides have previously extolled the benefits of bipartisanship with Associated Press/NORC data.

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“The poll showed that 87% of battleground voters surveyed said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports investing in our country’s infrastructure, helping grow our economy, and securing our supply chain, investing in American manufacturing,” Psaki said last week of the July study. “That’s exactly what the president’s agenda is, what the Build Back Better agenda is, what the bipartisan infrastructure bill is.”

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