Florida voters more concerned about health care, economy and immigration than guns

Health care is the top issue on Florida voters’ minds, polls leading up to the midterm elections show.

It consistently ranks No. 1 in public opinion polls conducted in recent days by multiple polling organizations.

Health care was cited as the top issue by 31 percent of Florida voters in the final pre-election poll from Florida Atlantic University. It was also No. 1 in a Suffolk University/USA Today Network poll this week, which reported it was cited by 25.2 percent of people as the most important issue in the U.S. Senate race.

The economy and immigration are generally in second and third place.

In some polls — such as the 24 percent who cited it in the FAU poll — immigration is in second place. It’s third place in the Suffolk poll.

In other surveys — such as the 24.8 percent in the Suffolk poll of Senate race voters — the economy is in second place. It’s third place in the FAU poll.

Candidates

The findings aren’t a secret. Candidates are reflecting what the polls show people care about. For example, President Donald Trump is raising concerns about immigration — particularly the caravan of Central Americans he says is threatening the southern border of the U.S.

“The fact that we’re talking about immigration is consistent with the [news] coverage of the immigration issue and how much the president has been focused on it,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University and a research fellow at FAU’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative.

Many candidates — especially Democrats — are talking about health care. A report this week from the Wesleyan Media Project found that health care is by far the most frequently mentioned topic in candidate ads — 45 percent of federal candidate ads aired since Labor Day have dealt with health care, more than double the 22 percent that mentioned taxes.

“Health care has been a consistently important issue for several election cycles and continues to be,” Wagner said.

Health care has evolved as an issue, from a subject that riled up opposition to then-President Barack Obama and the Democrats in the 2010 midterms to a topic that Democrats are using to their advantage and against Republicans in the 2018 midterms.

Guns

None of the recent surveys of Florida voters cite gun-related issues as an overwhelming concern of voters even though the state has seen mass shootings that killed 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland in February, five at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport in 2017 and 49 at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando in 2016.

Gun control was cited as the top issue by 10 percent of respondents in the FAU poll — and by even smaller percentages in the Suffolk poll: 8 percent of people considering the Senate candidates and 7 percent of people considering the candidates for governor.

Many of the final 2018 midterm polls were finished late in the last week of the month and had wrapped up or in their final round of calls on Oct. 27, the day of the massacre that killed 11 people at a Pittsburgh synagogue.

Wagner said the Pittsburgh mass shooting may raise the issue of guns in some voters’ minds in a way that happened after the polling was completed. “It’s hard to know,” he said.

“It might not be that gun control is a big issue for everyone or even most people. But it’s probably the issue for a significant chunk of people,” Wagner said. “If those are not traditional voters, or people that are just turning out because of their concern about gun violence, that could move the needle a few points.”

Wagner said the issue could prove decisive if it motivates even a relatively small share of voters in a close election, which is what Florida usually has in its statewide contests.

The latest RealClearPolitics polling averages have Democrat Andrew Gillum 2.7 points ahead of Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor’s race and Democrat Bill Nelson 2.3 points ahead of Rick Scott in the U.S. Senate race.

Demographic breakdowns

A Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics poll released this week asked Florida voters to name the most important problem facing the U.S. today.

On many issues there was relatively little difference — often 1 to 3 percentage points — among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

But there was a great disparity on two issues.

On health care, for example, 26 percent of all likely voters said it was the top problem. That broke town to 32 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of independents and just 16 percent of republicans.

Immigration was cited as the top problem by 19 percent of all likely voters and just 5 percent of Democrats, 14 percent of independents — and 36 percent of Republicans.

Trump

To many, Trump himself is an issue.

“President Trump being elected shook the United States, right,” said Michael Bell, who is the executive director of a non-profit in Pompano Beach. “Some say he shook it for good, some say he shook it for bad.”

In the Suffolk Poll, which was conducted for the USA Today network, Florida voters were divided over the impact of the president on their voting decisions.

— 39 percent agreed with the statement “I want my vote in November to support the direction President Trump is leading the nation.”

— 39 percent said “I want my vote in November to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation.”

— 17 percent said “My vote this November doesn’t have much to do with President Trump and his policies.”

— Just 5 percent were undecided or wouldn’t answer the question.

“Trump has definitely taken over politics,” said Stephanie Sylvester, a political science major at Broward College and editor-in-chief of The Observer student newspaper. “He also has made people realize what the real issues are, making people open their eyes and not just vote on what they like and what people say.”

Impact

Even in a highly polarized country, in which many Democrats and Republicans are loyal to their party’s candidates, Wagner said issues can make a difference.

Wagner said political scientists who have analyzed the impact of issues on voters’ choices have found the most recent concerns have a bigger effect than more general policy feelings.

For example, he said, someone thinking about the Pittsburgh massacre might use gun issues as a deciding factor. For someone whose health insurance was just cancelled, health care could become the top voting issues.

If people are thinking about health plans, that might help Democrats. If they’re thinking about immigration and security, that might help Republicans.

It’s something the candidates and their consultants are aware of, Wagner said. “A lot of what they are doing is attempting to push voters into thinking about the issues that reflect best on them, so those are the issues that are foremost on [voters] minds.”

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