City bucks national trend in homicide rates

With one of the highest homicide rates nationally for years now, St. Louis has held the reputation of the country’s most dangerous city. Despite this, its homicide rate in 2021 decreased by a jaw-dropping 25% as compared to its record-setting spike in 2020. 

In fact, the Gateway City became one of the nation’s few large cities that bucked the trend of increasing homicide rates since the pandemic began. 

More than two-thirds of the country's 40 most populous cities saw more homicides in 2021 compared to 2020, according to a CNN analysis. Not only that, but CNN reported 10 of those cities broke their own homicide records in 2021. They are Philadelphia; Austin, Texas; Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; Portland, Oregon; Memphis, Tennessee; Louisville, Kentucky; Milwaukee; Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Tucson, Arizona. 

As for St. Louis, homicide numbers decreased from 263 in 2020 to 195 in 2021, or about 87 homicides per 100,000 people (which is the highest in the city’s history) to 65 homicides per 100,000 people.

In 2019, the city experienced 194 homicides.

“It’s certainly moving in the right direction, but a homicide rate that high is nothing to be particularly proud of,” Richard Rosenfeld said of 2021’s numbers. “We should view it as good news, the fact that we are moving in the right direction, but we have a long way to go.”

Rosenfeld is a criminologist at the University of Missouri—St. Louis and a member of the Council on Criminal Justice’s Violent Crime Working Group.

 He pointed to conditions that most likely explain those rates and the conditions which created the significant increases the city saw in 2020.

“The longer-term conditions, the deeply-rooted conditions, that give rise to a chronically high level of homicide, they’ll be no surprise to your readers—racial segregation, concentrated poverty, high levels of joblessness, and if you add to that a long-term view of the police that is far from positive or favorable, those are the conditions keeping homicide rates quite high,” Rosenfeld said.

He said shocks to the system like the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of George Floyd’s death are believed to have created the spike in homicides seen across the country in 2020. He pointed out, though, while rates began creeping up in the weeks following the pandemic lockdown in March 2020, the significant spikes were seen in the weeks and months after Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis police officer in late May.

So why did St. Louis see a decrease in 2021? 

Rosenfeld said it’s difficult to answer with certainty, but he points to an unraveling of those two conditions: the pandemic subsided, and there were no local or national incidents that incited the kind of reaction Floyd’s murder did in 2020. 

“I don’t want to discount the role of policing; I just simply can’t tell you how much policing mattered in our decline,” he said. “One hopes it had some impact.”

The St. Louis County Police reported 66 total homicides in 2021, according to a spokesperson. Of those, 39 occurred in an unincorporated part of the county, 16 in contracted municipalities and 11 in municipalities.

Sixty-six homicides align with previous county numbers. In 2019, there were 64 homicides reported, and in 2020, there were 71. A locational breakdown for those years was not available. 

Deterrence, intervention and prevention

St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones campaigned in 2020 on a platform of violent crime reduction through deterrence, intervention and prevention created through an “all hands on deck” approach.

Working with Dan Isom, St. Louis’ director of public safety, and St. Louis Police Chief John Hayden, Jones said her administration quickly realized law enforcement is not the only answer to reducing violent crime. She pointed to violence prevention and intervention initiatives such as Cure Violence and the Downtown Engagement and Public Safety Initiative. 

She also highlighted her administration’s decision to pair social workers with police officers on calls to intervene in the cycle of violence. Isom added the city has increased its victim outreach efforts as well, hoping to provide support to those people so they’re less likely to offend themselves.

“There are a lot of things where our hands are tied, [like] the proliferation of guns in our community because of the [Missouri] legislature, so we are using all the prevention tools in the toolbox,” Jones said.

Both Rosenfeld and Isom said a much lower homicide rate is possible because the city has seen those kinds of numbers before. Rosenfeld cited 2003 when the city’s homicide number was around 100 per year. 

“When I left as chief of police, the [homicide] number was 112, so I do believe that there is the possibility, we have done it before, where our numbers could be much lower,” Isom said. “So that’s the hope that I have, is that if we continue to do things to address people who are actively involved through deterrence, intervention and prevention, then we will have some long-term success.”

Isom acknowledged those efforts would take some time, but he is hopeful the city will continue a trajectory toward a less violent city.

Rosenfeld cited the city of Dallas, Texas, as a possible model for St. Louis. He said its police chief, Eddie Garcia, has executed a laser-focused, two-prong approach for decreasing violent crime. Garcia applied standard police deterrence practices methodically while addressing longer-term conditions.

While Jones, Isom and Rosenfeld agree the 2021 homicide numbers are still too high, they agree it’s a move in the right direction and expressed optimism for the future.

“It’s almost as if the stars have aligned right now to do something meaningful about crime,” Rosenfeld said. “So, if you add that to the mayor’s agenda and ambition, what I’m suggesting is that we now have the funds to ratchet up that ambition beyond [where] the mayor has taken it as of now.”