Does reopening UNCW increase COVID-19 risk for Wilmington?

WILMINGTON -- UNCW has branded their reopening campaign “Best for the Nest,” a nod to their Seahawks mascot. But is what’s “best for the nest” also what is best for the “rest” -- meaning the 235,000 residents of New Hanover County?

It’s a complicated question and one that’s being asked across the nation in cities and towns that are home to universities and colleges, said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an expert on emerging infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security.

The presence of UNCW and its thousands of students, faculty and staff is felt far beyond the 661-acre campus.

County Commissioner Patricia Kusek acknowledged the challenge leaders faced.

“It just makes mathematical sense that with an increase in population of any age returning to the area that we potentially could see more cases,” Kusek said. “That said, I also believe there is a need to make every attempt to carefully return to our lives. It’s a difficult decision to make and I do not envy any education administrator that has to make that call.”

What Adalja said they are seeing most often is even when a college does what they can to encourage social distancing, it’s hard to get full compliance from the students off campus.

“And the question is, do they (UNCW) have a plan to be able to limit that spread?” Adalja added.

’Safety is paramount’

UNCW Chancellor Jose V. Sartarelli appointed a team in April “to develop a sustainable and nimble strategy” for the fall semester, which included consulting with community leaders like Health Department Director Phillip Tarte and New Hanover County Manager Chris Coudriet.

“Throughout the development of this plan everyone involved has recognized that safety is paramount beyond the borders of the university,” Tarte said.

Based on the group’s recommendations, Sartarelli and his leadership team settled on three options for instruction: in-person, online, or a mix.

Adalja noted it's expected the return of students will have an impact on the spread of COVID-19 in the larger community, but the extent is difficult to quantify.

For one thing, of the 17,600 students currently enrolled many are not part of a sudden influx -- they live here year-round.

As instruction began last week, 3,720 students were living on campus, 5,800 students were taking only-online classes and 11,800 were in a mix of in-person and online.

But those numbers don’t tell the full story. Just because students are taking only online classes doesn’t mean they are not living here, Adalja said.

“Even if they are doing all remote they may still want to be in the town,” he said. “They’re still trying to get some of that college independent living experience in the town that the college is in. College students are still going to congregate and I think it’s unrealistic to expect them not to do that.”

Although UNCW cannot control what students do off campus, the Best for the Nest guidelines make it clear that students, faculty and staff are expected to follow the guidelines when they are out in the community.

Sartarelli addressed that in a letter to the UNCW community on Friday, when he noted “some students, especially in off-campus environments, have turned their backs on these health and safety protocols.” This brings with it the potential for personal legal consequences, he added.

The chancellor said UNCW police plan to work with the Wilmington Police Department to address events in neighborhoods near campus that violate safety mandates, and those students will be referred to the dean’s office for additional educational training and, potentially, disciplinary actions.

“We need your help,” Sartarelli wrote. “We don’t want to take the step of pivoting to all-online instruction, but we are prepared to do so if COVID-19 cases cause a significant issue at UNCW.”

COVID on campus

It’s not a matter of if COVID-19 will surface in the UNCW community -- it already has.

During the week ending Aug. 14, seven positive cases were reported to the Student Health Center, although that does not necessarily mean the person was on campus or even in Wilmington.

Unlike places such as nursing homes and secondary schools, colleges are not required to report cases of communicable diseases, a spokesperson for the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services said. But some, including UNCW, are posting their numbers online.

If students on campus test positive, they would work with the health center on treatment options, including whether to return home. A residence hall has been reserved as a quarantine location and can house 150 students. As of Friday, four students were living in the dorm because of possible exposure while traveling. The health center monitors their condition and can arrange appropriate medical care as needed, university officials said.

Meanwhile, the university continues to work closely with county health officials, and a plan is in place to respond to an outbreak if needed, a UNCW spokesperson said. The health center also has an ongoing working relationship with the hospital.

“NHRMC closely tracks COVID-19 data in our region and remains prepared to respond in the event of a sudden outbreak or community cluster,” hospital spokesman Julian March said.

Adalja said trying to carry on with normal activities at a school or workplace is all about having a plan to limit spread, convincing people to follow that plan, and weighing the overall risk.

But, he added, there are other factors to consider: can the school or business follow the often-disruptive safety measures and still carry out its work? And to what extent will it increase the spread of the virus in the wider community?

“The question is, at what level can this be done in which you don’t get so many disruptions and which you limit community spread?” Adalja said. “And I don't think we know the answer to that yet.”

Regardless of how the semester plays out, UNCW and other universities and colleges are, in effect, conducting an experiment that Adalja and others will be closely watching.

“COVID-19 is killing 1,000 Americans a day, ”Adalja said. “I don't know that we have a best practice for how this is going to move forward.”

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Reporter Scott Nunn can be reached at 910-343-2272 or Scott.Nunn@StarNewsOnline.com.

UNCW: Fall semester

Total enrolled: 17,600

Online-only: 5,800

Online/in-person mix: 11,800

Living on campus: 3,720

COVID-19 cases last week: 7