Looks like we’ll have an above-normal hurricane season in 2020, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast issued Thursday.
“The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in a news release.
NOAA forecasters are predicting 13-19 named storms this season, including 6-10 hurricanes. Among the hurricanes, 2-6 are expected to be major hurricanes – those of Category 3 strength or above with winds of 111 mph or higher.
“NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence,” the agency said. “An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.”
Why more hurricanes this season – besides the fact it’s 2020 and what else can go wrong?
Blame it on El Nino, or the lack of it.
“El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity,” NOAA said. “Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
“Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995.”
While the official start of hurricane season isn’t until June 1, we already had our first named storm – Tropical Storm Arthur. Its appearance marked the sixth consecutive year we’ve had a named storm before June 1.
Last year we also had an above normal season, with 18 named storms and six hurricanes, three of which were classified as major hurricanes – Category 5 Dorian, Category 3 Humberto and Category 5 Lorenzo.
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