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Draft Report on Global Warming Foresees Environmental Havoc in U.S.

Draft Report on Global Warming Foresees Environmental Havoc in U.S.
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October 20, 1988, Section B, Page 12Buy Reprints
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Global warming caused by industrial pollutants in the atmosphere is likely to shrink forests, destroy most coastal wetlands, reduce water quality and quantity in many areas and otherwise cause extensive environmental disruption in the United States over the next century, according to a draft report by the Environmental Protection Agency.

The report, prepared by the agency at the order of Congress, is ''the first comprehensive look at the effects we might experience in this country from global warming,'' said Linda J. Fisher, the environmental agency's Assistant Administrator for Policy and Planning.

A second report ordered by Congress from the agency on policy recommendations for reducing the pollution that is producing global warming is due out by the end of the year. Scientists believe that the earth is warming because carbon dioxide and certain other industrial pollutants in the atmosphere tend to trap solar heat, a process called the greenhouse effect.

Although the report finds mostly negative consequences from global warming, in some areas, such as agriculture, the news is not all bad. The report concluded, for example, that while hotter, drier weather may reduce crop yields in some areas, including the Southeast and central portions of the country, it could increase productivity in more northerly agricultural regions. Rise of 3 to 8 Degrees

The 700-page report has not yet been officially released by the agency, but a 51-page executive summary was made available to The New York Times today by sources outside the Government. The report examines how the global warming trend is likely to affect the various regions of the country and their natural systems.

Scientists project that in the absence of major reductions in burning of fossil fuels, the major source of carbon dioxide pollution, the greenhouse effect will result in an average global warming of 3 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the next century.

The report concludes, ''Global climate change will have significant implications for natural ecosystems; for when, where and how we farm; for the availability of water to drink and water to run our factories, for how we live in our cities; for the wetlands that spawn our fish; for the beaches we use for recreation, and for all levels of government and industry.''

Agency officials cautioned that the projections in the report were based on computer models that contained many of uncertainties. They also noted that the report was still being reviewed for accuracy by scientists. But they said the evidence showed that global warming would bring major, irreversible changes in the country's natural systems. Major Findings of Study

Among the more significant findings of the report are these:

Some ecological systems, particularly forests, which occupy one-third of the country's land area, may be unable to adapt quickly enough to a rapid increase in temperature. The warming trend could force the southern border of forests northward while the northern border moved more slowly. As a result the range of species such as sugar maples and hemlocks are likely to shrink. The composition of the forests is also likely to shift as temperatures rise and moisture content of the soil changes, making some regions less favorable to certain species of trees and more hospitable to others. The agency projects that the decline in the nation's forests will begin within 30 to 80 years.

As the global sea levels rise by one to three feet or more because of thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of glaciers, most of the nation's coastal marshes and swamps would be inundated by salt water. Louisiana, which has 40 percent of the nation's coastal wetlands, could lose up to 85 percent of these rich ecological habitats.

Beaches and other developed coastlines could be protected by dredging and other means, but the cost would be high, as much as $111 billion through the year 2100. Even with these efforts, some 7,000 square miles of coastal drylands, an area the size of Massachusetts, could be lost.

While changes in rainfall patterns cannot yet be predicted with accuracy, the warming trend is likely to produce changes in water quantity and quality in some areas. In California, for example, an earlier snowmelt and runoff could disrupt water management systems and mean that less water will be available in the drier months of late summer. Reduced snow and faster evaporation may reduce the level of the Great Lakes. Where there is less water there would be less dilution of pollutants. Higher temperatures could increase the growth of algae that would choke out other life in some lakes.

Summer heat waves may lead to an increasing number of deaths, particularly among the elderly. This trend would be pronounced in northern states, where prolonged heat is now unusual. Diseases borne by insects, including malaria and Rocky Mountain spotted fever could spread as warmer weather expanded the range of the insects. Diseases exacerbated by air pollution, such as asthma and emphysema, are likely to be increasingly troublesome. Because hotter weather is likely to increase pollution.

''On a national scale, the supply of agricultural commodities does not appear to be be threatened by climate change,'' the report stated. The projections showed that while crop acreage in Appalachia, the Southeast and the southern Great Plains could decrease by 5 to 25 percent, acreage in the northern Great Plains, the northern Great Lakes states and the Pacific Northwest would increase by 5 to 17 percent. The growing amount of carbon dioxide in the air could actually increase the yield of some crops because carbon dioxide is absorbed by plants in photosynthesis. Rise in Food Prices

Many of the nation's farmers might respond to climate changes by increasing irrigation or shifting to crops that thrive in drier soils. Food prices are likely to increase to the detriment of consumers but the benefit of food producers.

Some regions are likely to suffer more than others, the report noted. The Southeast, which would lose major lowland areas and already suffers from high temperatures in summer, is one region that would feel the effects of global warming heavily. California, which already has problems making do on its available water, would also have difficulty in adjusting to the climate changes.

Next month, governments of industrial and developing countries are scheduled to meet in Geneva under the sponsorship of the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization to set up panels to examine the predicted effects of global warming and to recommend strategies for dealing with the expected changes. The findings of the E.P.A. report are likely be considered at that meeting.

A version of this article appears in print on  , Section B, Page 12 of the National edition with the headline: Draft Report on Global Warming Foresees Environmental Havoc in U.S.. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

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