Fans may want to take a mental snapshot of where they were, how they felt, and what they were doing when the 2021 World Series ended. Try to remember all those sensations and bottle them up for a cold and bleak winter without baseball, because this offseason could be longer than usual.
When the clock strikes midnight on the night of December 1, MLB’s group of owners are expected to lock out the players, barring an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement that currently seems as likely as the Orioles winning a World Series.
A lockout would also bring a fresh sheet of ice to baseball’s annual hot stove. Free agency, trades, arbitration, the Rule 5 draft and all the other player movement that typically comprises the winter months would cease to exist until a new CBA is finalized. The goal, obviously, is to resolve all issues before spring training rolls around in February, and especially before the regular season begins on March 31.
Prior to Game 1 of the World Series, commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that “our clubs are 100 percent committed to the idea that they want an agreement by Dec. 1.” For months, though, conversations about that topic, particularly the possibility of an agreement before the deadline, have boiled down to, “Good luck with that, Rob.”
Tony Clark, the former Mets and Yankees first baseman who now heads the Major League Baseball Players Association, has publicly expressed optimism as well. The main talking point from his side of the board room will be ensuring that the players are paid what they’re worth, particularly early in their careers. The rampant tanking that has consumed teams like Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Texas in recent years needs to be addressed too. Clark specifically used the terms “competitive integrity” and “integrity in the system” when laying out his interests.
On Manfred’s side (the side of the owners), the focus is, of course, money. Expanding the playoffs is a cash cow for Major League Baseball, as more games equals more television revenue. As for the actual product on the field, pace of play will surely be a major talking point. One of the easier things for both sides to agree upon, at least on paper, is the need to shorten game times. The average length of an MLB game in 2021 was three hours and eleven minutes, the longest it’s ever been. Each of the eight longest average game times have come in the last nine seasons.
In his pre-World Series comments, Manfred zeroed in on two hours and 40 minutes as the ideal game time, calling it “a nice number when you think about it in comparison to where we’ve been.” He also said the goal is for the people physically in attendance at the games — the ones often spending $100 or more on tickets, concessions and other game day goodies, driving the revenue machine — to feel like the action and pace has improved.
In a sea of disagreement, this will be contentious. Tangible rule changes tend to upset the old guard, a group of fans Manfred is keenly aware are baseball’s strongest demographic. But the thinking goes that shortening the games will draw in a younger audience, and though MLB would have to provide a year’s notice for any on-field rules alterations, Manfred explicitly noted that “there’s going to come a point in time where the pressure to make changes is going to be sufficient.” Agreeing with the Players Association on significant changes to the game is a tall order, especially when taking Manfred’s less-than-favorable approval rating into account.
Other sticking points of the upcoming negotiations will center around money as well. But with fans returning to the ballparks this season, easing the blows of last year’s reported $3 billion in losses, the league is in good shape. That is, if they get this all hammered out before Opening Day. Baseball’s lowest attendance per game of the last 30 years came in 1995, when fans were still sour about the work stoppage that wiped out the end of the 1994 season and the postseason. If these labor negotiations drag on in a way that interferes with the season even a little bit, fans may show the same reluctance to support a league that can’t get their stuff figured out.
This entire ordeal stands to be fairly complicated and dominated by a lot of labor jargon. In simple terms: The owners will lock out the players if a new CBA is not signed by 11:59 on Dec. 1.
A December 2 lockout puts pressure on the players while simultaneously giving them ample time to resolve things before pitchers and catchers report. Imposing a lockout as soon as legally possible also helps the owners maintain their leverage. While no free agency — and likely no MLB Winter Meetings — would be a bad look for the sport, it’s miles and miles better than a work stoppage lingering into the spring.
Manfred has always, pretty nakedly, been an owner’s commissioner. His interest in protecting profits and his background as the league’s Executive Vice President of Economics and League Affairs has created the image that he’s more of a suit than a true fan of the game. But the public relations and financial impacts of potentially creating the first serious labor dispute in 26 years might be enough for Manfred to push these negotiations into the end zone.
If not, MLB will have a lose-lose situation on its hands: unhappy players and fans who simply want to play and watch baseball, with a commissioner who won’t let them until his band of wealthy owners are satisfied.
