Expert advice on Thanksgiving: Cancel it. | Moran

covid-19 outpatient center

Dr. Chaudhry Aman, left, and Dr. Vikas Shah at the lab of the new outpatient center for COVID-19 patients at Christ Hospital in Jersey City. (Reena Rose Sibayan | The Jersey Journal)

As the virus surges across New Jersey, the dean of the Rutgers School of Public Health has some advice for families preparing a traditional Thanksgiving celebration: Don’t do it.

“I adore my brother, but I will not see him this year,” says the dean, Perry Halkitis. “We are not having Thanksgiving – no, no, no! People are increasing the vulnerability of those who are most at risk by gathering together in homes, around a dinner table, where there is saliva and aerosols being sprayed around.”

New Jersey, like much of the nation, has lost control of the virus. At the low point in late July, new infections dropped below 250 a day. That has jumped as high as 1,600 a day recently. So, as you buy groceries or meet a friend, the chances of bumping into the virus have skyrocketed.

“It’s as bad as it seems,” Halkitis says.

And it’s getting worse. Each infected person in New Jersey is now spreading the virus to 1.28 others, on average, a sure sign that the caseload will continue its climb. One encouraging sign is that the rate of deaths has barely budged, partly because those infected are younger than during the spring surge, and partly because treatments have improved. But Halkitis warns that will get worse, too.

“We are seeing huge escalation in hospitalizations, and what is sure to follow is deaths,” he says. “It’s just a matter of time. The virus will spread to more vulnerable people. They are being a little more careful, but it’s more of a challenge when the amount of virus circulating around you is so much greater than it was over the summer.”

Complacency is now the enemy. People are tired of not seeing friends, not going out to eat or drink, not going to the gym or yoga class. We’re letting down our guard, and the virus is taking advantage.

Contact tracing of those infected indicates that most of the spread is now driven by private gatherings in homes, not by outbreaks in restaurants, gyms, or stores, where conditions are more carefully monitored, according to a spokesman for Gov. Phil Murphy and Halkitis.

For that reason, Halkitis says there is no compelling need for Murphy to tighten the public restrictions yet. No rule can stop people to from hugging grandma at Thanksgiving. This boils down to personal responsibility.

Halkitis recommends that everyone, healthy or not, get a test every two weeks. The state, he says, must expand availability of testing, since people are still waiting hours at some overburdened test sites. The trick, he says, is to make this process easy.

“In the heyday of the AIDs crisis there were condoms everywhere, even in restaurants,” he says. “That’s what has to happen.”

If you must celebrate a traditional Thanksgiving, he recommends getting a nasal swab test a full week beforehand, and then strictly isolating. On Thanksgiving, he says, get an antigen test that produces results right away. Those tests are less accurate but can add at least some measure of security. But it’s safer, he says, to cancel the event altogether.

We are at a crossroads. If we don’t pick up our game, then the hospitals will fill, and then the morgues. That would force the governor to tighten restrictions, leading to more poverty and want, and deeper emotional isolation during what is sure to be a long winter.

The virus is making its move, and it’s not one bit tired. If we want to stop it, we need to pick up our game until a vaccine arrives.

More: Tom Moran columns

Tom Moran may be reached at tmoran@starledger.com. Follow him on Twitter @tomamoran. Find NJ.com Opinion on Facebook.

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