Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 December 2021

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 26 December 2021

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts.

The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.

Hope you enjoy

>>> ALSO: in case you missed it, I published my 2021 End of Year Special Report last week — check it out!

1. Breakout?  Pretty light volumes, but the S&P500 managed a new all-time *closing* high last week, and an initial breakout through that key overhead resistance level... But it left me asking: will the breakout stick? (or will it be more of the same range-trading of the past 2-months now).

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Source:  @Callum_Thomas

2. Stealth Correction:  Still the "Stealth Correction" continues — around a 3rd of the market is tracking below their respective 200-day moving averages. It’s that ongoing theme of narrow leadership, and winners vs losers under the surface.

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Source:  @Callum_Thomas

3. Global Equity Breadth:  Similar thing at the global level -- a quarter of countries (main benchmarks) are trading below their respective 200-day moving averages, and global equities ex-US peaked months ago... (but also holding support for now).

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Source:  @topdowncharts

4. Fund-Flow Seasonality:  With all this talk of stealth corrections (maybe the weak breadth could be interpreted as some of the steam being safely vented from the market!) — and the initial breakout in the S&P500 (and so far relative stability in global equities vs outright declines, especially with that support level holding)… maybe it will be back to the races for markets in January if this usual seasonal pattern in fund flows charted below holds.

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Source:  @ISABELNET_SA

5. Fund-Flows or Fun-Flows? Global inflows into equities topped $1tn the past year as investors scrambled to chase the latest speculative flavor of the month.

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Source:  @Schuldensuehner

6. Fun With Fund Flows:  From "Sell Everything" to "Buy Everything" ...and now? ("Buy Some of the Things?)

This chart tracks the rolling 3-month flows into all stock and bond funds in the US -- pretty interesting path it’s taken. It sure does seem to be …tapering… -off somewhat recently though.

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Source:  @topdowncharts

7. Billionaire Bye-Bye:  According to Bloomberg, US billionaires sold over $40 billion in stock this year (vs $20B in 2020). Market movements obviously helped some, and obviously Elon selling down Tesla (following his Twitter poll to ask if he should) skews the number a little bit (not to mention option expiries, and various other cash needs of other sellers). But again, can’t blame them for taking some gains off the table after such a strong run (and arguably a gradually shifting risk vs return outlook).

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Source:  @LizAnnSonders

8. All-Time Highs:  Not quite a new ATH in ATH's but pretty close to it -- the year 2021 is in second place at an updated 68 new All-Time-Highs.

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Source:  @drtimedwards

9. Trading Up:  A record high $130 TRILLION total gross notional value traded in US equities this year (and that's ex-Dec data!).

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Source:  @HideNotSlide

10. Oh Christmas Chart:  Last one this week has to be the "Christmas Tree Chart" of annual SPX returns distribution. Still a few trading days left this year, but solid result for the index in 2021.

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Source: @CarterBWorth

Thanks for reading!

Callum Thomas

Founder and Head of Research at Topdown Charts


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