Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 10 April 2022

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 10 April 2022

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and commentary around the charts.

The charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective...


1. Correction Drivers Update:

-EPOL [Poland ETF] (geopolitics proxy): relief rally stalled

-LQD [IG Credit ETF] (credit/rates): new lows as bond yields spike

-ARKK [New Tech Fund] (tech burst): lower highs, rolling over again

Thus, my overall sense: path of least resistance = lower

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Source:  @Callum_Thomas



2. Big Trouble in Small Tech:  Seems small cap tech stocks are struggling to keep up. For that matter, small caps in general have been a picture of weakness, and tech still seems vulnerable. I would call this breakdown here a red flag.

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Source:  @adaptiv



3. Stock Correlations:  Can deduce from this chart that the correction saw big rotation, whereas the rebound however floated all boats...

Correlations spike during times of panic selling and panic buying: especially when it's a generalized risk-on/off move, and especially accentuated by passive flows.

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Source:  @DrewTheCharts



4. Recession vs Correction:  "March 8th was likely the bottom unless we witness a recession." (J.P. Morgan's Michael Cembalest). So basically: tell me if we're headed into recession, and I'll tell you what the market's going to do...

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Source: @SethCL



5. Stockmarket vs Recessions: Market seems to typically stall about 6-months before the official beginning of a recession according to this chart.

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Source:  Bear Market Warnings



6. Earnings Revisions: It was always going to be hard to maintain the post-pandemic rebound momentum, but this looks like a fairly clear red flag for growth/earnings...

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Source:  @MrBlonde_macro



7. Big Stock Earnings Impotence:  Seems like the top 10 stocks are no longer on top when it comes to earnings contribution to the S&P 500…

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Source: @SoberLook via @jessefelder



8. Peak Profit Margin?

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Source:  @MaverickBogdan



9. Sectors and Bubbles:  Interesting thing to me on this chart is (not annotated) Energy basically had an echo-bubble in the late-2000's. One could argue that Tech is currently in the middle of an echo-bubble... (or maybe it's just the “new normal”, as many assert).

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Source:  @SamRo



10. Space Investing to the Moon!!

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Source:  The Space Investor


BONUS CHART: "Dividend Yield vs 10-Year Treasury Yields" (i.e. some thoughts on -- the whole so what about surging bond yields?)


Thanks for reading!

Callum Thomas

Founder and Head of Research at Topdown Charts

Feedback/questions/views welcome in the comment section below:

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