Kashmir: Why Centre is sending additional 38000 troops to J&K

In the past one week, the Narendra Modi government has decided to send an additional 38,000 troops to the Kashmir Valley in two batches -- 10,000 and 28,000. This follows a statement by the home ministry in Parliament that situation has improved in Kashmir Valley.

On July 24, Minister of State for Home Affairs G Krishan Reddy told the Rajya Sabha that security situation in the state has improved in the first half of the year compared to corresponding period of 2018.

"Net infiltration has reduced by 43 per cent and local recruitment has declined by 40 per cent. Terrorist initiated incidents have declined by 28 per cent. Actions initiated by the security forces witnessed an increase of 59 per cent and have resulted in 22 per cent increase in neutralisation of terrorists," said Reddy in a written reply.

He said, "Due to concerted and synergised efforts of security forces, 126 terrorists have been neutralised in the state of Jammu and Kashmir since January, 2019 till 14th July, 2019."

Conventional wisdom says the government reduces the number of troops when security situation improves. With this in background, the deployment of an additional 38,000 troops in Kashmir does not seem to be arising out of security requirement.

Speculation is going on about some intelligence inputs about infiltration bid from Pakistan which has prompted the Centre to tighten security in the Kashmir Valley. However, such infiltration bids are not new during autumn. Pakistan has for years tried to push terrorists into Indian side of the Line of Control before the onset of winter.

Significantly, Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik in July said there has been no infiltration in five months. Some other reports quoting officers of the 15 Corps of the Indian Army backed Malik's claim on infiltration of terrorists. The 15 Corps is responsible for security in Kashmir Valley.

Another argument that has been put forth is the BJP's plan to hoist the tricolour in every panchayat this Independence Day. The Centre has been pushing for Independence Day celebrations in all the panchayats this year.

To ensure that terrorists do not disrupt the Independence Day celebrations, security deployment looks plausible. But the state already has a deployment over 90,000 central forces in addition to local police force. Around 32,000 troops are deployed along the route of Amarnath Yatra, which ends on August 15.

Moreover, Independence Day celebration in every panchayat is linked with BJP's attempt to galvanise its workers in Kashmir Valley, where it performed well in local body polls held between October and December last year.

In the local elections, boycotted by the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party, the BJP swept four terror-infested districts of Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag. The BJP also won a large of seats unopposed in municipal and panchayat elections.

The BJP's unexpected rise in the Kashmir Valley has left both the dominant local parties -- the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party -- unnerved a bit.

National Conference leader Omar Abdullah, recently, lamented that if the assembly election follows the voting pattern of the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP would have its MLA from Tral, where terrorists like Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa belonged to.

As media reports suggest, none of the major parties except the BJP is ground-ready for election in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP leadership last week held a meeting with the core group of its Jammu and Kashmir unit asking it to hit the ground running. The Congress, the NC and the PDP have yet to gear up for the elections.

A few BJP leaders have also said they expect the Election Commission to announce the poll schedule for Jammu and Kashmir in days after the Amarnath Yatra concludes. The poll panel had also said that it would take a call once Amarnath Yatra ends.

Since the election should ideally be over before the onset of winter in Kashmir, the Election Commission will have about two months' time. Deployment of additional troops in the Valley is likely to make its job easier.

(Correction: The story has been updated to include statement of Jammu and Kashmir Governor Saty Pal Malik for better accuracy. In the previous version Lt Gen SK Dua was mentioned as the GoC of 15 Corps, whose current commnder is Lt Gen KJS Dhillon.)