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UCF researchers say COVID-19 cases to decline beginning next month

Updated  July 30, 2020 5:06am EDT
Coronavirus Florida
FOX 35 Orlando

Researchers say Florida will see a drop in cases next month

Researchers at the University of Central Florida speak to FOX 35.

ORLANDO, Fla. - University of Central Florida (UCF) data scientists are optimistic about the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic’s trajectory.

According to new projections, COVID-19 infection rates may be peaking in Orange County later this month and trending down toward December.

The data comes from researchers from the Departments of Statistics and Data Science and Computer Science.

While that information sounds good, they say their projections — which were formed using the latest artificial intelligence and deep-learning models — don’t account for certain events like the NBA relocating to Orlando, schools reopening in August, or tourists visiting Orange County.  

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"The current predictions are based on the data to date, and the future may change," says Shunpu Zhang, professor and chair of the Department of Statistics and Data Science. He, along with Associate Professor of Computer Science Liqian Wang and graduate student Dongdong Wang, worked on the project together. 

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According to a press release from UCF, the researchers developed the projections by feeding data from Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times into 10 different compartmental models.

"Each deep neural network was trained with about 50,000 simulations from classic epidemic mechanistic models, including SIR and SEIR, both widely accepted by epidemiologists."

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The results include the variables to help policymakers see the best-case and worst-case scenarios.

Based on the observation data, those scenarios include:

  • The daily increase of COVID-19 positive cases will begin to slow around early August for the U.S. and the end of July for Orange County.
  • The maximum infection rate is expected to be approximately 12 million for the U.S., 1.6 million for Florida and 70,000 for Orange County.
  • The number of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients will peak in early August for the U.S. and Florida, end of July in Orange County.
  • There is a strong correlation between Florida and the U.S., indicating the state plays a prominent role in informing national policy. Similarly, Orange County tracks Florida’s numbers.
  • The researchers also explored a hypothetical situation that extended Florida’s shutdown, instead of opening up into Phase 2 in early June. Charts show a dramatic rise in positive cases almost immediately after reopening began and the numbers tell the same story.
  • The projected ultimate total infection rate tripled in the U.S. from 4 million to 12 million; expanded 16 times in Florida, from 100,000 to 1.6 million; and jumped 35 times in Orange County, from 2,000 to 70,000.

You can read more about the research HERE.