Joe Biden faces a humanitarian crisis at the southern border

THE FIRST thing you see after crossing the bridge from Reynosa, in Mexico, into Texas is a large white sign with bright red letters that spell out “BINGO”. It is meant as an advertisement for a hall where people can play the game. But it also serves as a reminder of the long odds and random luck that lie in store for those making their way to America.

Hoping fortune may be on their side now that a pro-immigrant president is in the White House, a rising number of migrants are arriving. Guatemalans, Hondurans and Salvadoreans are fleeing violence, poverty and a pair of hurricanes. Mexicans are coming to escape a contracting economy. From last October through February, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which guards America’s borders, had around 400,000 encounters along the south-western border. That is the highest number during those months since 2006.

Many are children: in October-February, around 30,000 people under the age of 18 presented themselves at the border without a parent, setting off a scramble to find beds in a system already stretched by the pandemic. A record 120,000 could arrive this year—54% more than in the previous peak year of 2019.

Plenty of those who make the treacherous crossing are not spotted or apprehended by CBP. Matt Robinson, the head of security for the East Foundation, a not-for-profit outfit that manages 215,000 acres of ranchland in South Texas (an area roughly the size of New York City), reckons he is seeing ten to 20 times more migrants illegally crossing the foundation’s land than last autumn. The situation has “changed so fast, and is so upside down, I don’t know if there’s any guardrails,” says Urbino “Benny” Martinez, the sheriff of Brooks County, which is 70 miles north of the border, and has the morbid distinction of being a hotspot for migrant deaths from dehydration.

This situation poses a huge challenge for Joe Biden, who was elected partly on his promise to enact more humane immigration policies than his predecessor. A rush of migrants to the border could overwhelm an already rickety system and impede his ability to honour that promise.

America has dealt with spikes in illegal immigration before (see chart), often caused by forces beyond a new president’s control. “There was always going to be a surge because of a backlog under Trump,” says Lee Gelernt of the American Civil Liberties Union. Last year Donald Trump in effect sealed the border from entrants by invoking Title 42, a public-health order that authorised the rapid expulsion of all border-crossers and asylum-seekers because of concerns about covid-19. This has resulted in pent-up demand.

But some migrants are arriving because Mr Biden’s actions may have given the impression that America does not intend to enforce its immigration laws, and will put penitence for Mr Trump’s nativist policies ahead of border security. In January the Biden administration ordered a 100-day halt to deportations of illegal immigrants already in America. (This was scuttled by a lawsuit from the state of Texas and a court ruling.) He has ended the Trump-era “remain in Mexico” policy, under which would-be immigrants remain south of the border to await their immigration proceedings; some 20,000 people will soon be allowed to enter America.

His administration has left Title 42 in place, which allows it to expel more border-crossers immediately. It has chosen to accept unaccompanied minors, regardless of whether they qualify for asylum or other special consideration. Some families have sent their children ahead to America because it is their likeliest shot at gaining entry. Having railed against the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” policy that resulted in family separation, Mr Biden is in the peculiar situation of watching some families voluntarily separate to get their children into the United States.

Rumour has it

“We’ve thrown open the border by rumour,” says Neal Wilkins, who runs the East Foundation. Sister Norma Pimentel, who heads the Catholic Charities of the Rio Grande Valley and interacts with many of the arriving families, blames “organised crime” for spreading the message that now is the time to come. Smugglers are using the change of administration to drum up business. From Central America they charge $10,000, which includes a “coyote” to guide them through harsh terrain and three tries, if they get turned away by Border Patrol on their first two attempts. Many families are hoping to turn themselves in at the border to start the asylum process.

In recent weeks, more families have also been allowed in because of a decision by the Mexican government to stop taking back families with young children that CBP has tried to expel. Pending negative covid-19 tests (Title 42 remains in effect), they are being processed and released into the Rio Grande Valley without needing to make a claim for asylum, whereas families who have children older than seven are, in effect, barred. Those who test positive are being put up at hotels to quarantine.

Catholic Charities of the Rio Grande Valley is helping around 700 new families every day at its shelter in McAllen, opposite the bus station. Your correspondent was there as a dozen new arrivals were dropped off by Border Patrol. All had young children, some only a couple of months old. That fuels news that America’s borders are opening, which encourages others to come. Children may get the most headlines, but, says Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a think-tank in Washington, “by sheer numbers, there’s a lot more parents with children than unaccompanied minors”.

The system is already buckling. America’s immigration system was designed when single people, mostly Mexican men, were trying to cross the border to find work. In the past decade there have been three demographic shifts among border-crossers: from Mexicans to Central Americans; from single people to families and children; and from those who need no humanitarian protection to those asking for asylum. Although asylum-seekers on the southern border may be fleeing desperate circumstances, most will not meet the standard that lets them stay. But those who pass an interview proving “credible fear” are often released into the United States while their cases are pending.

The overburdened immigration-court system now has 1.3m cases, about two-and-a-half times the number when Mr Trump assumed office. Resolution takes years, and most migrants disappear into their communities while they wait. According to a study by the Department of Homeland Security, among asylum-seekers from the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras who arrived between 2014 and 2019, 28% were repatriated by early 2020. Yet the department has no record of departure for the other 72%. With only 8% being granted some sort of relief from removal, the others are either still awaiting judgments or have decided to stay indefinitely, even though they are not legally allowed to do so.

Much of the burden for helping migrants who arrive in America has long fallen on non-profit groups, especially during the previous surge in 2019 under President Trump. But covid-19 is presenting overstretched charities with additional challenges. “This time around we’re finding it a lot more difficult, because we don’t have volunteers,” says Sister Pimentel. We’re running short of hands to make it right.” The United Way of El Paso County recently asked 100 former volunteers to help, but only six said they were comfortable enough to accept, says Christina Lamour, vice-president of community impact.

This affects communities well beyond the Valley. “Even 80 miles away from the border, people are affected,” says Susan Kibbe of the South Texans’ Property Rights Association. Some ranchers are afraid to go to parts of their land, she says, after being threatened by smugglers and cartel members. Agents who used to patrol farther north have been pulled down to the border.

On the 90-minute drive from Raymondville to Hebronville in the Rio Grande Valley, usually you would see ten Border Patrol officers and six officers from Texas’s Department of Public Safety, reckons Mr Robinson of the East Foundation. When your correspondent did the drive with him, they saw none. On any given day there could be 100 migrants hiding in the brush in Brooks County, says Mr Martinez, the sheriff, but with much of the county’s Border Patrol pulled south, the brushwork is often left undone.

Such chaos has national-security implications. Will Hurd, a former congressman, says intelligence organisations should make ending human smuggling in Central America a priority. It is not just Mexicans and Central Americans who arrive through the southern border but others from Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere, seeking to enter undetected. This month CBP has intercepted at least three groups of more than 100 migrants each, including nine Romanians. In addition to people, smugglers ferry drugs across the border. The more migrants overwhelm the system, the more this distracts from the task of cracking down on drugs. Between October and February, seizures of fentanyl rose by around 360% from a year ago.

Who said what, when?

Confusion about border policy is rife. Mr Biden has yet to nominate permanent heads of CBP and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). One law-enforcement official asked your correspondent whether Title 42 was still in effect. Others are unsure whether it was the United States or Mexico that decided not to send back families with young children.

Hugo Zurita, who runs Good Neighbour Settlement House, a non-profit in Brownsville, says there needs to be “more communication with DC and local officials. I’m not saying we need to know every detail, but we need to know what’s going to happen.” Studying conditions at the border first-hand would surely help. “The big problem we continue to have with government is they never seem to get down on the ground and talk to people who are here on the front lines, who live and work in the community,” says Dennis Nixon, the boss of IBC, a bank, in Laredo, Texas.

Mr Biden has already ordered a review of various immigration policies, from the asylum system to how to reunify families separated under Mr Trump. He does not have much time. Already immigrant-rights groups, finding themselves with more sway than they have had in years, are agitating to end Trump-tainted Title 42.

But “if they were to lift that, you’d see the system overwhelmed even more,” says Theresa Cardinal Brown of the Bipartisan Policy Centre, a think-tank. “Right now Title 42 is the only thing that is buying the administration time to put in place the immigration system it wants.” There is talk of creating reception facilities that are not just for detention, so migrants can find out more about the asylum process and get information: the sort some European countries have designed for refugees. “You can rely on the shelters and non-profits for only so long,” says Ms Brown.

In the coming months, Mr Biden will find himself sandwiched between two pugnacious, opposing forces. One is the left flank of his own party, which has become more strident on immigration, staking out positions such as abolishing customs and immigration enforcement and never detaining unaccompanied minors. The other is the Republicans, who have already signalled that they intend to use the border as a wedge issue to take back Congress in the 2022 mid-term elections. Unless Mr Biden can show that he is successfully grappling with the surge of migrants and reining in his own party, the border could cost Democrats seats, much as “defund the police” did in 2020.

The border troubles also pose a threat to Mr Biden’s own agenda. He wants to shepherd through comprehensive immigration reform, offering illegal immigrants already in the United States a path to legal status, and he supports giving citizenship to “Dreamers”, who were brought to America as young children. But those prospects dim as the surge of migrants grows. “Anything we’re trying to get passed connected with immigration is potentially at greater risk, depending on current conditions at the border,” says Woody Hunt, a Texan businessman, who, along with a group of business leaders, supports offering permanent status to Dreamers. For Mr Biden, the southern border is quickly becoming a moral and political quagmire. ■

See also: We are tracking the Biden administration’s progress in its first 100 days