The EU is strengthening democracy in eastern Europe

IN TOO MANY places around the world, freedom is denied. In theocracies such as Afghanistan and Iran, women lack the right to dress as they please. In countries from Myanmar to Sudan, juntas rule. And Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has not only launched a lawless war against his neighbour, Ukraine, but clamped down further on his own people’s rights. Yet there are bright spots too—and some of these can be found on Mr Putin’s doorstep (see chart).

This can be seen in a report published on October 26th by the World Justice Project, a charity based in Washington, DC. It draws on tens of thousands of responses from legal practitioners, local academics and household surveys to produce the Rule of Law Index, a ranking of 140 countries and jurisdictions according to a series of indicators: constraints on government powers, the absence of corruption, fundamental rights, and criminal and civil justice.

Globally, the latest update makes for grim reading. The majority of countries on the index declined for a fifth consecutive year in 2022. Freedom of expression is down in over 80% of countries since 2015; adherence to the rule of law fell in 61% of them in the past year. Sudan and Myanmar are leading the decline. Russia’s ranking has tumbled in the past five years, landing it in 107th place. But other former Soviet and communist states, in eastern Europe and Central Asia, have bucked the trend. Five of them have been among the top ten improvers on the rule of law since 2015.

In eastern Europe, the influence of the EU deserves some credit. Both current and aspiring members are supposed to hew to the rule of law. According to the index, Estonia, a former Soviet republic, has recorded some of the greatest improvements in the EU. Even Poland, a regular thorn in Brussels’s side, has largely preserved its standing this year (it depends on a flow of funds from the EU to help with the influx of Ukrainian refugees). Its score inched up for the first time since 2015.

Moldova, an EU hopeful perennially in Mr Putin’s crosshairs, led the index in improvements to the rule of law between 2015 and 2022. Ukraine, which applied for EU membership shortly after it was invaded, has also improved its score markedly since 2015.

Former Soviet countries in Central Asia are also improving. Although Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remain repressive autocracies—ranked 65th and 78th in the index this year—their second-generation rulers have shaved off some of the worst excesses of their predecessors. Kazakhstan introduced direct elections of rural mayors; Uzbekistan ended forced labour.

Mr Putin might have hoped his invasion of Ukraine would slow his neighbours’ progress towards what he dismisses as “Western” values, such as the checks and balances of democracy. If anything, images of Russian draft-dodgers fleeing the country and the carnage of war show what a future without the rule of law portends.■