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Orderly transfers of power occur less often than you might think

In the past century, only around half of the world’s countries have managed even one crisis-free handover

AFTER WEEKS of refusing to commit himself to relinquishing the White House calmly if he gets voted out of office in November, President Donald Trump finally relented—somewhat. On October 15th, at a town-hall event in Miami, Mr Trump said he would accept the results of the election, win or lose. “They ask, ‘Will you accept a peaceful transfer?’ And the answer is, ‘Yes, I will.’” Mr Trump said, adding quickly, “but ideally, I don't want a transfer because I want to win.”

Eleven such handovers from one party to another have occurred in America since the end of the first world war. This makes the country an exceptional success on this measure, according to data compiled by Adam Przeworski of New York University. Mr Przeworski’s database, which analyses elections in more than 200 countries between 1919 and 2015, shows that only a little more than half have had even one orderly electoral transfer of power—defined as government handovers free of coups, civil wars or constitutional crises after a vote (see map). At the upper end are countries such as Finland and Iceland, which have each had 12 conflict-free handovers; topping the list is Costa Rica, which has had 14 in 96 years (albeit interrupted by a 44-day civil war in 1948). In India, the world’s biggest democracy, power has changed hands peacefully seven times since independence from Britain in 1947.

Other countries have patchier records. And China and Russia, two giant authoritarian states, have had no peaceful electoral transitions of power from one party to a rival one. America’s first such handover of the presidency was in 1801. As its citizens look ahead to their election next month, it is remarkable that a 220-year record of civil transitions should ever have been called into question.

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