Is murder upswing starting to abate? Some US cities see declines.

Despite a second straight year of rising homicides in 2021, last year’s violent crime data show some reasons for hope. 

First, even though the homicide rate rose again, it slowed down. For 2020, it posted a 30% year-on-year increase, according to research from the Council on Criminal Justice. By comparison, for the first three quarters of last year it rose only 4%.*

Second, that rise hasn’t been uniform. Homicides rose in almost every major city in 2020 – as gun deaths hit an all-time high – but that wasn’t true in 2021. Some cities – like Portland, Oregon; and Albuquerque, New Mexico – still had major increases. But others, like Boston and Dallas, had major dips.

That’s reason for optimism, says Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri, St. Louis. Nationally, he says, it suggests that the trends driving up violent crime  – like the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest – have started to wane. 

“What, generally speaking, we’re seeing in most but perhaps not all places is an unraveling of some of the conditions that gave rise to the increase in ’20,” says Professor Rosenfeld. 

Beyond that, numbers that vary city by city tend to have city-by-city explanations. Improved policing seems to be the answer in some cities, and community-based interventions may also be playing a role, though their effect is less certain. 

Despite the overall rise since 2019, America’s homicide rate is still far below the violent crime peaks of the 1990s. A more nuanced national picture in 2021, says Professor Rosenfeld, may suggest future increases aren’t inevitable. 

“I think it is good news,” he says.

*Editor's note: One paragraph has been corrected to show that the 30% rise in homicides in 2020 was for the full year.