Connecticut’s population rose imperceptibly in the past year, but it drew a rare influx of residents from other states, raising questions whether New Yorkers and others relocated to flee the pandemic.
The state added just 5,337 residents, an increase of 0.1% to its population of 3.6 million, from July 2020 to July 2021, according to the U.S. Census. Connecticut benefited from a net gain of 5,134 residents from other states, a tiny increase and the first since 2010.
Thomas Cooke, of the University of Connecticut’s geography department, who researches local population change in the United States, said Connecticut generally grows through “positive international migration.” From July 2020 to July 2021, 4,583 residents from outside the U.S. settled in Connecticut, notching another gain in what’s been an annual source of population growth.
“The movement of people right after the start of COVID was just a short-term blip,” Cooke said.
The administration of Gov. Ned Lamont has touted what it calls a “significant net migration of new residents.” A spokesman for the state Department of Economic and Community Development says 22,691 address change requests were submitted to the U.S. Postal Service over 18 months through June.
Anecdotes have abounded about New Yorkers who headed to open spaces of western Connecticut and elsewhere to escape COVID-19. Home sales in Litchfield County and New York’s Hudson Valley soared as weekend homes became permanent.
Cooke discounted much of it as temporary relocations by out-of-staters into second homes or moving in for a spell with family.
Similarly, after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, many New Yorkers left, believing they were unsafe, he said. “Six months later they moved back to New York City,” Cooke said.
Connecticut’s growth has generally been in “positive international migration,” with more people arriving from other countries than leaving, he said.
Before the pandemic, from 2011 to 2020, Connecticut lost an average of nearly 22,000 residents a year in net out-migration, for a cumulative loss of more than 219,000, according to the Census. Cooke said such a population loss is “not a great thing, but it is also far from the implication of an exodus of some sort.”
In contrast, Connecticut drew more than 146,000 residents in net migration from outside the U.S. from 2010 to 2020, an average of more than 13,000 a year.
The U.S. population grew in the past year by 392,665, or 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding, the Census said. The slow rate of growth can be attributed to decreased net international migration, lower fertility and increased mortality due in part to COVID-19, the federal government said.
Chris Haynes, a University of New Haven political scientist who focuses on immigration and migration, said slow population growth in the Northeast is not new.
“It’s been minuscule over 10 years,” he said. “It’s not that surprising Connecticut would stay in line with those trends, especially with COVID hanging around.”
Several factors are at work, Haynes said: a decrease in net international migration due to policies of then-President Donald Trump and the increased difficulty and expenses to migrate, reduced fertility leading to a declining population over the last decade of children up to age 18 and higher mortality.
“It’s an aging state with a declining birth rate,” Haynes said.
The 37,646 deaths in Connecticut between July 2020 and July 2021 outnumbered births by nearly 5,000.
Four of the 10 states with the biggest population declines between July 2020 and July 2021 are in the Northeast: New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. New York lost 319,020 residents, the largest among the states. Its declining population in the last year was attributed to 352,185 residents moving out.
As in the past, the South and West gained population. Texas had the largest increase, 310,288, a 1.1% rise, and Idaho posted the fastest annual gain, growing by 2.9%, or 53,151, this year.
Before COVID-19 swept through early last year, population moves from Connecticut were politicized, with Republicans blaming high taxes imposed by Democrats who dominate the legislature. Democrats cited other factors such as retirees leaving for warm-weather states and longstanding problems of Connecticut’s cities to attract young people.
Connecticut’s population gain for the year slowed from the past decade, when it increased by 0.9%, the fourth slowest among the states and the weakest in the Northeast.
The state’s 3.6 million residents were 31,847 more than in the 2010 census, up 0.9%. Connecticut, which ranked 47th in percent change, was followed by Illinois, Mississippi and West Virginia, which each lost population.
Stephen Singer can be reached at ssinger@courant.com.
