MU professor on chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal: 'In an ideal world, the intelligence would have been better'

An intelligence failure didn't foresee how quickly the Taliban would advance upon the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan, says a University of Missouri political science professor.

Bryce Reeder is an assistant professor of political science in the Harry S.Truman School of Government and Public Affairs.

"In an ideal world, the intelligence would have been better," Reeder said. "They should have understood the Taliban would do what they did. They are a battle-hardened force."

Reeder's primary area of scholarship is in international efforts to reduce violence.

The Taliban had offered to surrender at one point during the war, but Reeder said U.S. officials questioned whether the offer was legitimate, so it was rejected.

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"I believe that there was an opportunity, but there was a lot of uncertainty," he said.

If factions exist now in the Taliban, the hard-liners will win out, he said.

Although Taliban leaders are claiming to be more tolerant, they include disclaimers in their statements saying "as long as it aligns with our expectations or Islamic law," Reeder said.

He was asked about similarities to the end of the Vietnam War.

"I think if one thing is similar, it's the cost that we have imposed on civilians during the war," Reeder said. "We're leaving them behind. Those who helped us in Vietnam suffered a similar fate."

American leadership overestimated the strength of the U.S. military and underestimated the Taliban, he said.

"It sends the message, at least reputationally, that the United States will leave eventually," Reeder said of the withdrawal.

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Although President Biden said the Afghan people lacked the will to fight against the Taliban, Reeder said that could have resulted in a long civil war.

The decision to leave a war is different based on the goal, he said. If the goal was to get in and punish those who perpetrated 9/11, the U.S. may have left sooner, Reeder said. A goal of a stable Afghanistan would take longer.

What lessons can government leaders learn from America's longest war?

"With all of these conflicts, we need to ask, what's our responsibility and how long should we stay?" Reeder said. "Policymakers who are in charge really need to dig deep."

rmckinney@columbiatribune.com, 573-815-1719