Chicago rebounded from a hefty population loss in the first decade of the 2000s to add about 50,000 residents over the last 10 years, but once-robust growth in the surrounding suburbs has slowed to a crawl, according to new 2020 census data released Thursday.
Reflecting a national trend of a more diverse and urban population, the number and percentage of white and Black residents in the Chicago region continued to fall in many areas while the number of Latinos increased.
The decennial population count put Chicago’s total at 2,746,388 residents — a 1.9% increase over the 2010 census. The six-county region grew to 8,445,866 people — a 1.6% increase over a decade ago.
But perhaps the most stark statistic was Chicago’s plummeting Black population, which decreased by 84,738, a drop of nearly 10%. The number of Black Chicagoans now stands at 787,551 down from more than 1 million 20 years ago.
With a 5% growth over the decade, Latinos outnumber Black residents for the first time while Chicago’s white population increased slightly and the number of Asians increased by 31%. The city is now 31.4% white, 29.9% Latino, 28.7% Black and 6.9% Asian, according to the new census data compiled by The Associated Press and Big Local News.
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Chicago’s overall population gain is in striking contrast to the previous decade, when the city lost 200,000 residents, a 6.9% decrease. Just as eye-catching are the stagnant suburban numbers, as population growth in suburban Cook and the five collar counties stalled to what is easily the slowest rate since 1950, the data showed.
The slowdown comes amid the announcement earlier this year that Illinois is one of just three states nationally to lose population over the last decade, a reality that will cost the state one of its 18 congressional seats during the once-a-decade drawing of U.S. House districts that will now ensue.
Rob Paral, a researcher with the Great Cities Institute at the University of Illinois Chicago, called the results showing Chicago’s population gain a “good census” for the city, noting that it bucked expectations from previous surveys that predicted population losses.
“Some of the narratives we have of decline haven’t really been that accurate,” Paral said. “The suburban portion grew too — barely — but it held its own.”
The census data will inform how state legislatures and local governments across the country will draw their legislative boundaries, and could factor heavily in which party controls the narrowly divided U.S. House after the 2022 midterm elections. The exhaustive information also will be used to help determine how $1.5 trillion in annual federal spending is allocated.
The release of Thursday’s data from the U.S. Census Bureau was delayed by several months because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the information that was released came in an antiquated form put out to help states meet deadlines to draw new congressional maps. As such, detailed analyses of census tracts were not immediately available and new privacy protection practices by the Census Bureau could make block-by-block data inaccurate.
That, for example, made it premature to draw conclusions on exactly how Chicago’s population has shifted over the last decade. While the city’s total number of residents grew, it was unclear late Thursday which neighborhoods saw declines.
“Today’s census info shows Chicago’s resilience in the face of unprecedented challenges: privacy concerns, the Trump Admin’s fear-inducing policies targeting immigrants and a global pandemic,” Mayor Lori Lightfoot said in a statement. “We’re digging into the data, but today we celebrate the growth of our incredible city.”
Chicago remains the nation’s third-largest city, but No. 4 Houston continues to grow at a faster rate. The largest city in Texas is now up to 2.3 million residents, growing nearly 10% over the last decade.
Across the Midwest, among major cities, Chicago, Minneapolis and Kansas City showed population growth in the decade. Milwaukee, Detroit and St. Louis lost residents.
Chicago’s population topped out at 3.6 million in the 1950 census. The city’s population has decreased in all but two of the seven decades since — the exceptions being the 10 years counted in the latest census and in the 1990s, when Chicago grew by 4% due to a large influx of Latino immigrants.
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When Chicago dropped by 200,000 people a decade ago, it was fueled largely by a 17% decrease in the number of Black residents, many of whom left neighborhoods on the South and West sides. Chicago’s white population decreased slightly over that decade while its Latino population grew 3%.
While the nearly 10% drop of Black residents in the 2020 census was not as large, it promises a continued reduction in influence for Blacks in city and perhaps state politics. The number of Black wards in the Chicago City Council’s remap is likely to decrease as a result of the decline.
“Obviously African Americans are a protected class, and we’re going to try to hold onto as much political power as we can,” South Side Ald. Pat Dowell, 3rd, said. “I think the positive thing is the city is growing. I think that bodes well for the city. Obviously, there’s some work that needs to be done in communities of color, especially African American communities, to attract people back to the city.”
Dowell said she hopes council members will take into consideration keeping existing communities whole when it comes to aldermanic representation.
“When I think of my ward, I think of places like Bronzeville. I want to make sure the people I represent are within the same communities of interest,” she said. “That’s how I’m approaching this map and I hope the rest of my colleagues will do so as well.”
Former Mayor Rahm Emanuel led the city for eight years of the decade counted by the 2020 census. He relentlessly pursued growth downtown and in nearby neighborhoods, pushing through zoning changes that allowed for greater density in areas such as the West Loop.
At the same time, Emanuel faced criticism for not focusing enough on stabilizing economically-challenged neighborhoods on the predominantly Black South and West sides. Amid population declines, the former mayor closed 50 public schools during his tenure, most of them in predominantly Black neighborhoods on the West and South sides.
Asked Thursday if he thought his pursuit of corporate headquarters and the growth of neighborhoods near the Loop helped drive the slight population gain, Emanuel said he wouldn’t take a guess without first seeing a breakdown of the data. The former mayor also declined to comment on the drop in Black population.
He did not hesitate, however, to tout the city’s overall growth.
“I am proud for all the new residents who now call Chicago home,” Emanuel said. “They see what we have seen: strong schools, safe streets and stable finances make for sweet home Chicago.”
Perhaps a partial reflection of the slowing suburban trend lines, Chicago’s growth came during a decade when the city poached dozens of corporate headquarters from nearby suburbs and saw an influx of young professionals and baby boomers snapping up condos and apartments in and near downtown.
While city census tract data will offer a more complete picture of the population shifts in the city, downtown Ald. Brendan Reilly said he was “fairly certain downtown, the South Loop and West Loop are responsible for most of that growth.”
“The central business district continues to be a magnet for investment, development, headquarter relocations and job growth,” said Reilly, 42nd. “Young professionals continue to want to live and work in our vibrant downtown neighborhoods.”
Since 1950, the Chicago suburbs in many cases have experienced rapid, double-digit growth, decade over decade. Prior to the 2020 census, 8% marked the smallest population increase for suburban Cook combined with the five surrounding collar counties of DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will.
Over the last decade, those suburbs grew collectively by just 1.4%.
Paral, however, noted that while the growth was smaller, all of the counties in the region did increase their individual populations — including suburban Cook County, which he said is beset with some struggling suburbs that make it more prone to population loss.
Asked to explain the slower growth, Paral said it was likely due to continued trends of people have fewer children, a slowing of immigration and the growth of Sun Belt states at the expense of those in the Midwest.
“We of course have been concerned with stagnant population growth through our region,” said Erin Aleman, executive director of the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. “We’ve seen people leave the state for places that are warmer, like Florida, California and Texas, but also Indiana and Wisconsin.”
To stay competitive, Aleman said Illinois officials should look at their tax structures, as well as how to develop infrastructure and job training to maximize its advantages in the new economy featuring transportation, shipping and the manufacturing sector.
The new federal infrastructure bill, for instance, should be used to alleviate congestion in hubs such as I-55 and I-290, rail hubs such as the 75th Street corridor, and Will County’s intermodal shipping area. Solutions should include rail projects such as the CTA Red Line extension, as well as getting workers from train lines to work sites.
“We need to think about how people move,” Aleman said, “or we’ll continue to see some of our strongest industries go elsewhere.”
The census data revealed that Chicago’s suburbs are becoming increasingly diverse.
Overall, in the five collar counties, the white population declined by 183,869 over the past decade with the most significant drops in DuPage, down 54,689, and Lake, down 50,352. DuPage’s population has gone from 70.5% white to 63.4%, while Lake’s population has moved from 65.2% white to 57.2%.
At the same time, the five suburban counties showed an increase of 102,725 Latino residents. Will County’s loss of 37,159 white residents was offset by an increase in 31,975 Latino residents. DuPage’s loss of whites was countered by an increase of 22,785 Latino residents as well as an increase of 27,189 Asian residents.
Cook County’s population, including Chicago, also has grown more diverse and, like the collar county suburbs, has seen a significant drop in the number of white residents.
Over the decade, the county’s white population declined by 143,115 and now represents 40.5% of its residents. The county’s Black population also declined, by 80,177, and now makes up 22.5% of the population. In contrast, the Latino population increased by 138,016 and they now make up the county’s second largest racial or ethnic group, increasing to 26.2% of the population.
State population totals were announced by census officials in April, and Illinois was just one of three states to lose population. While the drop was not as large as expected, Illinois’ 2020 population of 12,812,508 represented a loss of more than 18,000 people or a 0.14% decline, from 10 years earlier.
Thursday’s data provided a more detailed picture of the changes in the state’s population.
All but 15 of the state’s 102 counties lost population. Those that showed at least incremental growth included Cook and all five collar counties, along with the exurban counties of Grundy and Kendall. Kendall grew the most over the decade, up nearly 15% to 131,869 from 114,736 in 2010.
Downstate, Carroll, McLean, Champaign, Effingham, Monroe, Williamson and Johnson counties showed slight growth.
But several downstate counties suffered significant population losses of at least 10%, including some in western and southern Illinois. Alexander County at the southwestern tip of the state had the biggest loss, shedding 36% of its residents over the decade, shrinking from 8,238 people to 5,240.
The census marks the first time since Illinois joined the union in 1818 that the state’s population has declined over the previous decade. The decline was anticipated because of out-migration to other states as well as a slowdown in the number of immigrants moving in that had kept overall population growing.
Mississippi and West Virginia were the only other two states to shrink. The results show Pennsylvania leapfrogged Illinois to become the fifth most populous state while Florida passed New York for No. 3.
In addition to Illinois, six other states will lose a seat in Congress: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York and California. Texas will gain two U.S. House seats while Florida, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each will pick up one.
Democrats currently hold a 13-to-5 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation, thanks in large part to the new map they drew in 2011 when the party controlled the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the state legislature. At the time, Republicans held an 11-8 majority in the delegation.
Prior to 2011, the congressional remap had been a bipartisan process among the state’s delegation, back when Republicans had either control of a state legislative chamber or the governor’s mansion. The current map, which also was drawn after Illinois lost a congressional seat, pitted Republican incumbents against each other, moved them into new territory and forced them to face Democrats in districts drawn to their disadvantage.
Much the same is expected this fall once Democrats have had a chance to crunch the data.
They are expected to lump two Republicans from downstate, which has seen large population losses, into a single district. One scenario discussed privately by Democrats would put Republican U.S. Reps. Mike Bost of Murphysboro in southern Illinois in the same district with GOP freshman U.S. Rep. Mary Miller of Oakland in east central Illinois.
Democrats also could look to shore up the western Illinois seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos, one of seven House Democrats representing a district won by Trump. They could make a similar move to protect second-term U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood of Naperville, who won a close reelection fight in the sprawling west, northwest and northern suburbs and exurbs.
The new detailed census data, however, will not be used to draw new state House and Senate districts. That’s because lawmakers had a June 30 constitutional deadline to draw new boundaries or face a process that would have given Republicans 50-50 chance of controlling the remap.
As a result, Democrats used American Communities Survey data from the Census Bureau to draw the map, less specific information that relies on estimates vs. the more detailed census results. Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed the new districts into law despite a campaign pledge that he wouldn’t support a partisan-draw map, a promise he later modified to say only that he wouldn’t back “unfair” maps.
Democrats have said they may use the census data to tweak some of the district lines they’ve already drawn. That would require a new vote by the legislature in the fall.
The state map is currently the target of lawsuits filed by the state GOP and the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund over the use of population estimates rather than actual census data.
Chicago Tribune’s Kori Rumore contributed.
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