Throughout his 2020 presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders has been careful not to overemphasize the significance of any one state in his second quest for a political revolution, often saying winning each one is as important as the next.
But as the Vermont senator recently concluded a campaign blitz through Michigan, he cast that talk aside.
“Tuesday is a very, very important day, and Michigan is the most important state coming up on Tuesday. We need you to come out to vote or to vote early. We need you to bring out your friends and family, co-workers,” Sanders pleaded to a massive crowd gathered outside in the heart of the University of Michigan campus. “Tell them to stop complaining, to stand up and fight back.”
Four years ago, Michigan delivered Sanders a shocking win and helped him sustain his campaign run all the way to the Democratic National Convention, where Hillary Clinton eventually claimed the nomination.
This time, Michigan’s primary comes at an even more critical crossroads for Sanders, as former Vice President Joe Biden holds a solid delegate lead, has assembled the backing of virtually all of his former presidential opponents and has the momentum of a series of strong wins from Super Tuesday at his back.
A loss could mark the beginning of the end for Sanders, but a win in what will be a key November swing state would push back against Biden’s argument that he’s the best candidate to win Rust Belt states critical to defeating Republican President Donald Trump.
There’s a reason the cable television pundits repeatedly have referred to it as a “make or break” state this week — even though Sanders is likely to march on regardless of the results. The other five states that vote Tuesday — Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, ldaho and Washington state — don’t offer any sure wins.
So for three days, Sanders has pushed most of his political chips into Michigan, airing a flurry of ads and campaigning in Grand Rapids, Flint, Detroit, Dearborn and Ann Arbor before Biden even stepped foot in the state.
In his push for a Michigan win, Sanders has leaned on a familiar playbook aimed at riling up his base — and hopefully juicing his turnout — by pitching the Midwest contest as the underestimated grassroots campaign of working people against the American political elite who long have ignored their needs.
“We are taking on in this campaign not just Joe Biden, we’re taking on the 60 billionaires who are funding his campaign, we’re taking on the Wall Street executives who are helping fund his campaign, we’re taking on the corporate establishment, we’re taking on the political establishment,” Sanders said as the throng in Ann Arbor booed in approval. “We’re gonna win this election.”
The polls in Michigan suggest it will be an uphill battle.
Five surveys released in the last week have Sanders down by an average of more than 20 points to Biden. This is not unfamiliar territory for the Vermont senator, who was expected to get blown out in the state before he scored the surprise win of the 2016 campaign.
“The polling four years ago had me down, what, 20 points on Election Day?” Sanders told reporters in Detroit. “And it turned out not to be the case. Polls are polls. I think we have the message that the people of Michigan understand.”
There is, however, that Biden momentum problem.
The former vice president rolled to victory a week ago after receiving endorsements from former opponents Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke on the eve on Super Tuesday. In the run-up to Michigan, he’s added Mike Bloomberg, Deval Patrick, Tim Ryan, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.
In Michigan alone, Biden has the endorsement of more than 100 elected officials, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, numerous state lawmakers and the mayors of Detroit, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Kalamazoo and Flint among others.
“To unify this nation, we have to first unify this party. Over the last week, we’ve gone a long way toward doing that,” Biden said before repeating all of his new supporters’ names. “They’ve all come out and endorsed at one time the candidate that they think can win.”
The unity tour de force was on full display Monday night. Biden was joined on stage in Detroit, a Democratic stronghold that is 80% black, by two of the nation’s most prominent African American leaders — Booker and Harris.
Booker declared Biden the “one man who is ready to go to the center of the arena who is our best shot to beat Donald Trump.” Harris proclaimed, “I believe in Joe. When he says there is room for everyone, that’s really who he is.”
When Biden took the stage, he raised joined hands with Booker, Harris and Whitmer as the crowd cheered. The political kumbaya was interrupted by dozens of demonstrators who interrupted Biden several times, protesting for the Green New Deal and holding a banner that read, “NAFTA killed our jobs.”
“That’s OK. Let them go. This isn’t a Trump rally. It’s OK, the Bernie bros are here,” Biden said, as police officers escorted the protesters out anyway. “This isn’t who we are as a party. This isn’t who we are as a country.”
On Monday, Biden noted his large lead in the Michigan polls but said he was “superstitious” and “not taking anything for granted.” Just a little more than a week ago, Biden’s footing in the state looked far shakier — until his dominant win in South Carolina thanks to strong backing from black voters.
During a canvassing event in Warren over the weekend, former Michigan Gov. Steve Blanchard noted how only a few days earlier, Biden had just one staffer in the state who had asked him to call state lawmakers to help rustle up some endorsements.
“I called about 20 legislators, and almost all of them said they were horrified that Bernie might lead the ticket. They were absolutely depressed and scared and worried, and they told me they were for Joe, but he was going to have to win something, otherwise what mileage would they have endorsing him and looking like they didn’t know what they were doing?” Blanchard told about two dozen campaign volunteers at a union bricklayers hall. “And then South Carolina happened and — boom — here came this explosion of everyone endorsing Joe.”
Not only is all of the momentum peaking for Biden at the right time, but his supporters see a stronger appeal to working-class white and suburban voters than Clinton had four years ago to go along with unquestioned backing from the state’s black voters.
“I don’t like them all lining up behind Biden. I don’t like it at all,” said Sanders supporter Doug Dowell, 42, an autoworker who lives in Huron Township. “Michigan is really huge for Bernie, and I’m very, very nervous because I just don’t know how it’s going to go here this time. There are a lot of people who are going to vote for Biden, because they think he’s a safe pick.”
The former vice president’s national momentum, however, isn’t nearly as visible from the ground in Michigan. In the campaign’s final days, Sanders repeatedly drew large, enthusiastic crowds — 10,000 in Ann Arbor, 7,000 in Grand Rapids and 6,000 in Detroit.
Biden’s closing rally on Detroit’s Northwest Side drew about 2,000 people to a high school, but the crowd only filled about half of the available gym floor. While Biden was greeted by a loud marching band, his supporters didn’t match the raw enthusiasm of any of the Sanders rallies. As Biden’s speech dragged into the event’s third hour, a few hundred people left early before he finished.
Crowd sizes, of course, don’t determine who wins elections, and the two candidates’ approaches on the Michigan trail suggest Biden has the edge for the state’s 125 pledged delegates.
Sanders has tried to drive down Biden’s numbers with numerous attacks, including one he wielded with success against Clinton — his vote in favor of the North American Free Trade Agreement and support for permanent normal trade relations with China. Both trade deals remain deeply unpopular among union workers for the subsequent job losses overseas.
“Joe Biden and I have a very different record on an issue of great importance to the people of Michigan, the Midwest and the whole country. I saw trade agreements, like NAFTA and PNTR with China, as a tax on the working class of this country,” Sanders said to the echoing roar of the crowd in a cavernous convention hall in Detroit. “If we are going to defeat Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it will be very hard for a candidate who voted for these disastrous trade agreements.”
The trade deal talk was the first in a fusillade of attacks against Biden, followed by hammering him for voting for the Iraq War, supporting the 2008 Wall Street bailout, his support of the credit card industry, initial criticism of the Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision, early opposition to same-sex marriage (which he later reversed) and his support, until recently, of the Hyde Amendment that banned the use of federal funds for most abortions. Each drew loud boos from the massive crowd.
During stops Monday in Grand Rapids, Flint and Detroit, Biden took on the aura of a front-runner, steering clear of attacking Sanders while keeping his barbs focused on Trump — with the exception of one veiled slight as he referenced the Flint water crisis that led many of the city’s residents to endure lead poisoning.
“Flint has become shorthand for the incredible division that still exists in this country based on ZIP code. Government owes the American people honesty, transparency, straightforward answers and most importantly, results,” Biden said. “We’re not looking for a revolution. What we ought to be able to do is trust the water that is coming out of the pipes.”
Cutting through Biden’s overwhelming black support remains a tall task for Sanders. On Saturday, he held an event in Flint with demand so high it had to be moved to a larger venue, but the crowd that turned out was overwhelmingly white. On Monday afternoon, Biden drew a small crowd in Flint that was about the same size as the media contingent on hand, but it was nearly entirely African American.
“With Bernie, it’s all pipe dreams, free education and all that,” said Glen Thompson, 63, a retired General Motors engineer who lives in Flint. “Biden tells you the truth. He comes from good stock with Obama and all those guys. You can trust him. He had my vote from the beginning. Michigan got screwed over by Trump, making a bunch of promises he didn’t keep. They’re ready to get off that crazy train, and they’ll listen to Biden.”
Sanders rolled out his own major endorsement in Michigan from a Chicago civil rights legend, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who declared the Vermont senator has “never lost his taste of justice for the people.”
While Sanders has had some success in attracting young voters of color under the age of 30, Cassandra Ford said she can’t understand why so many older black voters “blindly follow Biden.” Ford, a retired autoworker, said Sanders’ plan for “Medicare For All,” in particular, would benefit low-income African Americans who don’t have insurance and those like her who can’t afford their medical bills.
“I’ve been calling up all my friends talking about ‘Medicare For All’ and how they need to vote for Bernie, but a lot of them just don’t think it’s possible. ‘I don’t think it’s going to happen, so let me go with Biden,'” Ford said. “I believe all things are possible, and with God anything can happen. If it’s for the good of the people, I’m going with that. And Bernie is good for the people.”
Twitter @BillRuthhart
