California Facing Risk of Revenue Shortfall as Economy Slows

  • A $5.5 billion revenue miss likely, says legislative adviser
  • May signal end to surpluses that left state flush with cash

California Governor Gavin Newsom

Photographer: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images 

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California is likely to see revenue from its three major tax sources fall short of forecasts during the current fiscal year as a slowdown in the economy and the slumping stock market chip away at what had been surging tax collections.

In a post Monday, Deputy Legislative Analyst Brian Uhler estimated that the state’s revenue from personal-income, corporation and sales taxes will likely trail projections by $5.5 billion for the year that ends in June 2023. He said the outlook is highly uncertain, however, and that the collections may range from $26 billion below budget estimates to $15 billion over them.