Final Oscars Predictions: Best Actor – Austin Butler Likely Winner, but Possible Colin Farrell Upset Stirs

SAG winner Brendan Fraser is also still viable for without a best picture nom for 'The Whale,' he faces an uphill climb

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9. 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actor

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, from left: Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, 2022. © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection ©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

With BAFTA and Golden Globes going with Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Critics Choice and SAG choosing Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), on the surface, the race has narrowed to one of the two men walking with the statuette. But, interestingly, Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) has also come up in multiple conversations, with members sharing they voted for the Irish veteran.

Even though Butler dominated the early days of the circuit, then cooling off a bit in the middle portion, he came roaring back in phase two. I think the international voting bloc is going for him significantly, and the best picture nom helped tons. Fraser would be the first best actor winner without a picture nod since Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (2009). Going with Butler.

Will Win: Austin Butler, “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Could Win: Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Should Win: Austin Butler
Should have been here: Mehdi Bajestani, “Holy Spider” (Utopia)

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Austin Butler“Elvis”Warner Bros
Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
2Colin Farrell“The Banshees of Inisherin”Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
3Brendan Fraser“The Whale”A24
A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption.
4Bill Nighy“Living”Sony Pictures Classics
An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s.
5Paul Mescal“Aftersun”A24
Sophie reflects on the shared joy and private melancholy of a holiday she took with her father twenty years earlier. Memories real and imagined fill the gaps between as she tries to reconcile the father she knew with the man she didn’t.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: Will Smith, "King Richard" (Warner Bros.)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.