Publications
Published Papers
Using Social Media to Identify the Effects of Congressional Viewpoints on Asset Prices with Roberto Gomez Cram and Howard Kung
Forthcoming at The Review of Financial Studies
Interview with Faculti
Inflation as a Fiscal Limit with Leonardo Melosi, 2022 Jackson Hole Symposium.
Media coverage: Interviews: Bloomberg (at 1h:44m), Fox Business, Yahoo Finance, CNN, CNBC Class (Italian). Articles: Financial Times, Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, The Economist.
A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation with Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi (March 2023), forthcoming at Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter with Roberto Gomez-Cram, Thilo Kind, and Howard Kung, forthcoming the Journal of Monetary Economics.
Media coverage: Forbes, Wall Street Journal, CNN, Bloomberg, CNBC, Brookings, Reuters, Financial Times, Barron's, Diario Financiero
Diagnostic Business Cycles with Cosmin Ilut and Hikaru Saijo, forthcoming at The Review of Economic Studies.
The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty with Howard Kung and Mikhail Tirskikh, Quantitative Economics 14.3 (2023): 855-896.
The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates with Giada Bianchi and Dongho Song, accepted at the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma, American Economic Review 112.7 (2022): 2269-2315.
Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation with Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson, The Journal of Finance, 2022, 77(2): 967-1017.
Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target with Leonardo Melosi and Matthias Rottner, Journal of Monetary Economics,124 (2021): 107-122.
Media coverage: Brookings, Reuters, Chicago Fed President Evans.
A Generalized Approach to Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Giovanni Nicolo’, Quantitative Economics, 12(3), 2021, pp. 843-868.
Code for univariate example - Online appendix
Example in Dynare based on "Testing for Indeterminacy" by Lubik and Schorfheide (2004)
The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A View from Financial Markets, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, Volume 114, pp. 240-261. VOX Article (A previous version of this paper circulated under the title "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns.")
The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination, with Leonardo Melosi, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2019, Volume 104, pp. 1-22. Codes Presentation at Annual Research Conference organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Narodowy Bank Polski.
Growth, Slowdowns, and Recoveries, with Howard Kung and Gonzalo Morales, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2019, Volume 101, pp. 47-63.
Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle, with Cosmin Ilut and Martin Schneider, The Review of Economic Studies, 2018, 85(2), pp. 810-854.
Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency, with Leonardo Melosi, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, 100(1), pp. 187-202.
Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs, with Cosmin Ilut, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2017, 26, pp. 113-139.
Escaping the Great Recession, with Leonardo Melosi, American Economic Review, 2017, 107(4): 1030-58.
Methods for Measuring Expectations and Uncertainty in Markov-Switching Models, The Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 190(1), pp. 79–99. CODE
Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium, with Leonardo Melosi, The International Economic Review, 2016, 57(2), pp. 717-756.
Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR, with Andrea Civelli, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2015, 18(2), pp. 406-433.
Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue with Leonardo Melosi, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Regime switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies, 2013, 80(2), pp. 463-490.
Evolving Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in the United States, American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, May 2012. APPENDIX
The Great Moderation of the Term Structure of U.K. Interest Rates, with Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009, 56, pp. 856-71.
Other publications
Fiscal Inflation and Cosmetic Defaults in a Small Open Economy, XXIII Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile (2019).
Review of Understanding Global Crises by Assaf Razin, Israel Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 2 (2015), 157–162.
The Value of Forward Looking Communication, with Leonardo Melosi, Forward Guidance: Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants, ed. W. den Haan, VoxEU.org Ebook, London, October 2013.