The Associations Between United States Medical Licensing Examination Performance and Outcomes of Patient Care

Purpose: The United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) comprises a series of assessments required for the licensure of U.S. MD-trained graduates as well as those who are trained internationally. Demonstration of a relationship between these examinations and outcomes of care is desirable for a process seeking to provide patients with safe and effective health care.

Method: This was a retrospective cohort study of 196,881 hospitalizations in Pennsylvania over a 3-year period (January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019) for 5 primary diagnoses: heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, pneumonia, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The 1,765 attending physicians for these hospitalizations self-identified as family physicians or general internists. A converted score based on USMLE Step 1, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge, and Step 3 scores was available, and the outcome measures were in-hospital mortality and log length of stay (LOS). The research team controlled for characteristics of patients, hospitals, and physicians.

Results: For in-hospital mortality, the adjusted odds ratio was 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90, 0.99; P < .02). Each standard deviation increase in the converted score was associated with a 5.51% reduction in the odds of in-hospital mortality. For log LOS, the adjusted estimate was 0.99 (95% CI = 0.98, 0.99; P < .001). Each standard deviation increase in the converted score was associated with a 1.34% reduction in log LOS.

Conclusions: Better provider USMLE performance was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and shorter log LOS for patients, although the magnitude of the latter is unlikely to be of practical significance. These findings add to the body of evidence that examines the validity of the USMLE licensure program.