The Effect of Large-Capacity Magazine Bans on High-Fatality Mass Shootings, 1990-2017

Am J Public Health. 2019 Dec;109(12):1754-1761. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2019.305311. Epub 2019 Oct 17.

Abstract

Objectives. To evaluate the effect of large-capacity magazine (LCM) bans on the frequency and lethality of high-fatality mass shootings in the United States.Methods. We analyzed state panel data of high-fatality mass shootings from 1990 to 2017. We first assessed the relationship between LCM bans overall, and then federal and state bans separately, on (1) the occurrence of high-fatality mass shootings (logit regression) and (2) the deaths resulting from such incidents (negative binomial analysis). We controlled for 10 independent variables, used state fixed effects with a continuous variable for year, and accounted for clustering.Results. Between 1990 and 2017, there were 69 high-fatality mass shootings. Attacks involving LCMs resulted in a 62% higher mean average death toll. The incidence of high-fatality mass shootings in non-LCM ban states was more than double the rate in LCM ban states; the annual number of deaths was more than 3 times higher. In multivariate analyses, states without an LCM ban experienced significantly more high-fatality mass shootings and a higher death rate from such incidents.Conclusions. LCM bans appear to reduce both the incidence of, and number of people killed in, high-fatality mass shootings.

Publication types

  • Corrected and Republished Article

MeSH terms

  • Firearms / legislation & jurisprudence*
  • Humans
  • Mass Casualty Incidents / statistics & numerical data*
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Wounds, Gunshot / epidemiology*
  • Wounds, Gunshot / mortality