BLOOMINGTON — It was a long 24 hours for the Roth and Kocherzhuk families. But around late Thursday morning Illinois time, Kayley Kocherzhuk and her husband, Roma, were able to cross the Ukrainian-Romanian border.
Kayley Kocherzhuk is the daughter of Jennifer and Tom Roth of El Paso. She and her husband have been living in western Ukraine while they try to get him a visa to move to the U.S.
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Jennifer Roth had tried to get her daughter and son-in-law to leave the country as Russia amassed troops on its borders, but the Kocherzhuks had not really believed Russia would invade, she said. That changed Thursday.
“About an hour ago, they got through the Romanian border,” she told The Pantagraph shortly after noon Thursday.
More than a million refugees could be flooding out of Ukraine after Russia launched an overnight attack, creating one of the most daunting security crises in Europe since World War II. The military action is being felt around the world and in Central Illinois, as the Biden administration ordered new sanctions targeting Russia.
The Roths also have friends in Kharkiv, one of the first targets for shelling and the second-largest city in Ukraine.
"They woke up this morning and they were hearing bombs going off," Roth said.
Fleeing to safety
The family of Minonk-raised Angi Solley was evacuated from Ukraine to northern Virginia late last month. They had planned to live in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, for four years while her husband was posted there for a U.S. Department of State Foreign Service assignment.
However, their trip was cut short after just six months. And as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to unfold Thursday afternoon, she said, “I can’t stop crying.”
At the time, Solley said she was still in touch with co-workers and other contacts in Kyiv because the power hadn’t been turned off and internet services were still on.
In August, Solley's family moved all of their belongings to a new apartment in Kyiv and enrolled their children in an international school. Over the months, Solley said they got to know the city and fell in love with its people.
Her husband’s work has also taken them to Bulgaria and Azerbaijan — compared to those countries, she said Kyiv is a place where people have freedom and personality.
“We felt the people who live there have so much personal expression,” Solley said. “There are beautiful art murals on the side of many buildings. People just wear vibrant colors and all the young people have tattoos and funky haircuts.”
In Kyiv, Solley said cafes are found on every corner with incredible food and a welcoming atmosphere. There are sophisticated delivery systems for grocery and home improvement products.
The Roths and their daughter had traveled to Ukraine multiple times through their work with Can Do Kids International. The El Paso-based charity largely works in Kenya but has partners in Ukraine. Kayley Kocherzhuk works at an English school in western Ukraine.
The Roths have remained calm as they work to help their family and friends, Jennifer said.
"I'm probably the strangest person to ask (how we're feeling), but my husband and I are calm," she said. "(...) We honestly do have peace."
She attributed that calm and peace to strength from God and having a strong support group, both of whom helped them through the death of their other daughter in January 2021.
Returning to America left Solley with feelings of disappointment and tragedy.
Solley said: “We were just worried for all of the people that we were leaving.”
She described besieged Ukrainians as a vivacious and strong community, and gave her absolute support for any pathways to peace and freedom for their country.
“All of my concern is with the people of Ukraine,” Solley said.
Broken promises
Ali Riaz, professor in the Illinois State University Department of Politics and Government, sees Russia's military aggression as a threat to global order. He said it is also a violation of international law, and it breaks a 1994 memorandum of understanding agreed upon by the United States, Ukraine, Russia and the United Kingdom.
As part of that agreement, Riaz said, Ukraine gave up all of its nuclear weapons. But the agreement also stipulated that Ukraine's sovereignty and independence would be protected.
Riaz supposed Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to present his country as a global power and demonstrate its strengths through expansionism. He likened that to the former Soviet Union.
Riaz called on the United States government to stop the invasion of Ukraine, which he said is the biggest and most challenging assault on a European country since World War II.
"It is time for Europe and the United States to stand together and confront this," Riaz said, "because it has a larger implication. It is not only Ukrainians that will suffer, it is Europeans that will suffer as well."
Riaz noted that Russia has gotten advantages from exporting gas to Europe, and Putin is now leveraging them for his own desires. With that, he said the Russian president is forging a schism between the U.S. and Europe.
Those watching the war unfold should be careful about where they are getting their information, said ISU communications professor Joseph Zompetti, who studies misinformation.
“Our best bet at the moment is to gather our information from the most reputable sources that we trust the most,” he said.
At the same time, given the spin from official sources, including both Moscow and Washington, even trusted sources should be met with some skepticism, Zompetti said. Some of the spin is blatant, such as Putin’s claims that the war is for the “denazification” of Ukraine, a claim Zompetti dismissed easily given that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is of Jewish descent.
“(That claim) should send warning signs and alarm bells off in everybody’s head,” he said.
Besieged markets
Even Illinois residents who do not have direct ties to Ukraine or Russia may soon feel the effects of the invasion and the accompanying sanctions on the Russian economy. One place that will be felt is at the pump, as oil and gasoline prices rise.
People in the energy industry have been following the developments in Russia and Ukraine for months now, said Illinois Petroleum Resources Board Executive Director Seth Whitehead.
Both global and U.S. benchmark crude oils crossed $100 a barrel by Thursday.
“$100 oil is not good for anyone,” Whitehead said.
Even oil producers are worried by the prices, as it increases prices for everyone, he said. When combined with inflation, consumers should expect to see even higher prices at the pump.
“I think $4 seems pretty likely, and I’ve seen forecasts that it could be higher than that,” Whitehead said.
So far the U.S. has not directly targeted the energy sector in sanctions, Whitehead said. He guesses that part of the reasoning for that is that it could send energy prices even higher. Oil had already been at record high demand for this time of year and there has been a long-term decrease in investment in new oil and gas ventures.
The U.S. also became a net petroleum importer last year, with record high imports from Russia as part of that. Whitehead believes part of the problem was the blocking of the Keystone Pipeline, which increased reliance on Russian imports.
“Last year we were getting a lot more oil from Russian than I think people realize,” Whitehead said.
The invasion has been a wakeup call for some beyond the pump as well. In Russia, hundreds were arrested during anti-war protests, the Associated Press reported.
Another of Jennifer Roth's friends, who lives in Moscow, told Roth she had been skeptical that an invasion was going to happen.
"Her feeling was that Putin was not going to do anything," Roth said.
Experts are now worried about the precedent that the invasion and its supposed justification have set.
ISU political scientist Riaz asked what kind of message Russia's actions send to small countries that want to make their own decisions. And, it made him ponder whether China would follow Russia's footsteps with respect to Taiwan, or India with Nepal or Bangladesh.
His colleague Zompetti worries that Putin's ability to make these claims without any evidence will set a dangerous precedent to justify further Russian imperialism.
"It means that Putin could label any regime whatever he wants," Zompetti said.