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So Much Rain So Far, But What Kind Of Summer Are We Getting This Year?

By Giorgio Panetta, CBS2 Chief Meteorologist & Weather Producer

This has been an incredibly dreary and damp stretch of days. Despite the last few days having some sunshine break out and temps in the 70s, it's been pretty miserable. It's historically cold for May. On Monday we only managed to get up to 48°. This is the normal for mid-March and early December. We even set a record for the coldest max temperatures that dated back to 1914! Horse and buggy times! I'd like to breakdown how unusual this is, what's going on in the atmosphere, and what's the summer looking like. More of the same? Or can we hit the beaches ASAP?

So 29 of the past 35 days have had at least a trace of rainfall. That breaks down to about 82 percent of the time we had rain at some point on the given day over the last month or so. With rain obviously comes clouds. This puts NYC on track with Seattle as far as cloudy days go. Seattle ranks near the top - 308 days out of the year with mostly cloudy skies. Seattle only ranks second to good old Buffalo, N.Y., with 311 days. Funny, because Buffalo is only 375 miles away from Central Park.

Rainfall is a little trickier. Since we're only talking about a trace of rain or 0.01", it's easy to call just cloudy and quiet days "rainy days." Actually, New York receives more rainfall annually than Seattle. Out of 152 day of rain annually in the Pacific Northwest, Seattle's rainfall totals up to an average of 37.18." The Big Apple has much more rain at nearly 50" annually over 122 days. But we have to admit, they feel exactly the same and they can bum everyone out just as much! After a winter where temps were above normal, well above normal for some months, and a lack of big snowstorms, perception is that we've been in a cloud-filled rut going on four or five months now.

Last May we had 13 days with 0.01" or more, and get this, two days were in the 90s!

Growing up in the northeast, I can tell you April and May are really wildcards. Last April 13, for example, we were 82 degrees and sunny. By the 15th, we were down to 38 degrees for a low with rain and some sleet. So variety seems to be the way of the gun during these transitional months. This, in my humble opinion, is the problem. There have been no glimmers of hope, weather-wise: No brilliantly sunny and mild days to propel the mind and body into dreams of summer. NYC and the boroughs are gray enough thanks to the infrastructure. Its people need the vitamin D!

Since this has been an abnormally long stretch of gray, let us look upstairs in the atmosphere. Upper level lows and jet streams dictate surface conditions. Quick weather lesson: Low pressure brings in storms, high pressure brings sun. Very simple... Sort of. The earth's atmosphere is like one big constant ebbing and flowing river of wind. These winds drive temperature and therefore dictate the weather we see and feel.

Just like the West Side Highway, sometimes there are traffic jams. These atmospheric traffic jams can really make for some devastating weather. Luckily, due to our orientation on the planet, it's tough for that scenario to set up. However, it can manifest itself in constant clouds and systems that have limited moisture, and that's what we've been experiencing.

The current North American Oscillation (fancy weather geek term for areas of different pressure) is in the positive phase. This means a large upper level wind vortex spinning in the atmosphere acts as an anchor and deflector. It holds ground against incoming weather and usually drives wet and cold conditions to the northeast and eastern Canada.

So, now we know what has been happening and why, so what is next? What does summer have for us in the northeast? Analyzing some current trends combined with NOAA's outlook we can forecast with some confidence that the summer should have above normal temps and near normal rainfall. What does that mean? Normal rainfall for meteorological summer in NYC is about 4.5" per month, or 13.5" for the summer. Meteorological summer differs from the rest of life's calendar as it goes from June 1st to August 31st. Just something you can use for trivia night. Temps average 80 degrees for June, 84 degrees for July and 83° degrees in August.

We can expect some classic diurnal thunderstorm activity come late June through mid August with a few dry spells mixed in. I do believe the dry conditions will be limited given the proximity of the other upper level elements. I also expect to see our fair share of days above 85 degrees, so a hot summer with average rain and a healthy amount of humidity. Let's check back in the fall and see where we ended up!

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