30 Places That Will Be Hit the Hardest by the Next Recession

Joel Anderson
12 min read
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A lot of ink has been spilled in recent years about when the next recession is going to hit. For some time now, the U.S. economy has kept expanding despite historical trends suggesting that the other shoe was bound to drop. However, once the economy finally enters another period of decline, which places are going to be hit the hardest?

A national recession won’t look the same in different towns and cities. Local economies with serious poverty issues or housing markets full of underwater mortgages are going to feel the pain significantly worse than those where strong employment across the right industries can cushion the blow.

That’s why GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which cities are the most vulnerable to another economic downturn. Examining 89 major metropolitan areas, the study culled the list down to 30 cities that perform the worst in terms of average poverty rates, employment figures over the last decade, how employment across major industries compares to the national average and how many homeowners owe more on their houses than they’re worth. These places might be the least ready for another recession — so it’s smart to prepare yourself for the next economic downturn.

Last updated: March 25, 2020

30. St. Louis

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.3%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.8%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.6%

  • Change from peak to now: -6.2%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 65%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 25%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 14.7%

29. Knoxville, Tennessee

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.1%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.8%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 63.3%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 26.5%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.9%

28. Tucson, Arizona

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.3%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.7%

  • Change from peak to now: -4.6%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 61.8%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 24.1%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.3%

27. Milwaukee

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.6%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 65%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 27.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 15.7%

26. San Francisco

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.3%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 2.7%

  • Change from peak to now: -7.2%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 70.4%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 11.7%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 2.6%

25. Pittsburgh

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4%

  • Change from peak to now: -4%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 63%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 22%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.4%

24. Memphis, Tennessee

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 10%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.1%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.9%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 63.6%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 26.9%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 13.4%

23. Los Angeles

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.3%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 11.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.1%

  • Change from peak to now: -7.8%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 66.3%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 20.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 4.3%

22. Buffalo, New York

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.6%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -4.3%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 59.4%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 30.9%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.7%

21. Columbia, South Carolina

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.4%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.2%

  • Change from peak to now: -6.2%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 64.7%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 22.3%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 14.6%

Find Out: Is the US Headed Toward a Recession? How To Prepare

20. Orlando, Florida

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.3%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 11.1%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.1%

  • Change from peak to now: -8%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 72%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 19.1%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.6%

19. Chicago

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 10.6%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.1%

  • Change from peak to now: -6.5%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 66.4%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 20.6%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 21.4%

18. Jersey City, New Jersey

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.8%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.1%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 68%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 18.7%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 11.6%

17. Santa Ana, California

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.7%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3%

  • Change from peak to now: -6.7%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 67.4%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 19.5%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.2%

16. Mobile, Alabama

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 11.3%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -7%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 57.2%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 22.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 16.1%

15. Philadelphia

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 9.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.6%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.3%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 59.6%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 25.8%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 13.3%

14. Atlanta

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 10.3%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.6%

  • Change from peak to now: -6.7%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 65.2%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 22.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 8.8%

13. Newark, New Jersey

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.8%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.1%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 61.9%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 28.3%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 27.9%

12. Henderson, Nevada

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 13.8%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -9.5%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 62.4%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 9.1%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.3%

11. Baltimore

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.1%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.9%

  • Change from peak to now: -4.2%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 61.5%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 22.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 26.5%

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10. Modesto, California

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.4%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 16.9%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 6.7%

  • Change from peak to now: -10.2%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 59.9%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 17%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 5.9%

9. Cleveland

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.6%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.6%

  • Change from peak to now: -4%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 58.9%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 35.2%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 25.9%

8. Tallahassee, Florida

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 8.4%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -5.1%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 66.3%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 27.1%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 11.1%

7. Miami

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 10.8%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 3.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -7.5%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 61.8%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 25.8%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 10%

6. San Bernardino, California

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.4%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 13.7%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.2%

  • Change from peak to now: -9.5%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 57.3%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 30.6%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.5%

5. Stockton, California

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.4%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 16.5%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 6.4%

  • Change from peak to now: -10.1%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 59.2%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 22.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 6.6%

4. Las Vegas

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 13.8%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.3%

  • Change from peak to now: -9.5%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 63.6%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 16.2%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 7.2%

3. Bakersfield, California

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.1%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 15.7%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 8.6%

  • Change from peak to now: -7.1%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 63.7%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 19.2%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 11.8%

2. Toledo, Ohio

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.3%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 12.3%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 4.6%

  • Change from peak to now: -7.7%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 61.5%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 26.5%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 24.7%

1. Fresno, California

  • 2009-19 year-over-year change in unemployment rate: -0.2%

  • 2009-19 peak annual unemployment rate: 16.7%

  • Current annual unemployment rate: 7.9%

  • Change from peak to now: -8.8%

  • Labor force participation rate (ages 16 and older): 61.5%

  • Percentage of people with income below poverty line: 28.4%

  • Percentage of homes with negative equity: 9.3%

More From GOBankingRates

Methodology: GOBankingRates determined the places that will be hit hardest by the next recession by analyzing 100 major cities in the U.S., which were narrowed down to 89 due to data availability, along the following criteria: (1) peak average unemployment from 2009-19, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; (2) current average annual unemployment rate, based on BLS data available from January to July 2019; (3) change in unemployment rate between the peak and current level; (4) labor force participation rate, sourced from the 2017 American Community Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau; (5) percentage of all people whose income is below the poverty line, sourced from the 2017 American Community Survey; (6) percentage of homes with negative equity, sourced from Zillow’s June 2019 index; and (7) economic diversity, based on the percentage of employment in each city across 13 industries tracked by the Census Bureau compared to the percentage of employment for the U.S. overall (the greater the discrepancy, the most vulnerable the city). All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on Sept. 10, 2019.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 30 Places That Will Be Hit the Hardest by the Next Recession

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