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Iberian hydroclimate variability and the Azores High during the last 1200 years: evidence from proxy records and climate model simulations

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Abstract

The state of the atmospheric circulation and the associated hydroclimate in the North Atlantic during the last millennium remain the subject of considerable debate in both proxy- and model-based studies. Of particular interest in the Iberian region is the Azores High (AH) system, the southern node of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an atmospheric dipole closely tied to regional hydroclimate. Hydroclimate-sensitive proxy reconstructions from this region offer some insights into atmospheric dynamics, but large spatiotemporal gaps in these data inhibit a robust evaluation of hydroclimate variability. In this study, we present a continuous, sub-decadally-resolved composite stalagmite carbon isotopic record from three partially overlapping stalagmites from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, western Portugal, situated within the center of the AH, that preserves evidence of regional hydroclimate variability from approximately 800 CE to the present. Chronologies are derived from U/Th dating and annual laminae. Stalagmite carbon isotopic values primarily reflect the amount of effective moisture and reveal generally dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~ 850–1250 CE) and Modern Climate/Industrial Era (1850 CE-present), and wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~ 1400–1850 CE). Multidecadal to centennial variability in the BG record and state-of-the-art last millennium climate model simulations show considerable coherence with precipitation-sensitive records from Spain and Morocco that, like BG, are strongly influenced by the intensity, size, and location of the AH. Model-proxy synthesis suggests that western Portugal was persistently dry during much of the MCA consistent with other NAO reconstructions; however, even considering age uncertainties, the apparent timing in the transition from a relatively dry MCA to a wetter LIA is spatially variable and confirms the non-stationary behavior of the AH system indicated by model output.

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Availability of data and material

Stable and U-series isotope data are available at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information website.

Code availability

None.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Pedro Ribeiro, Jace Bricker, Alaina Chormann, Gabi Hiatt, Amanda Houts, Mark Mathison, Madelyn Mette, Steve Rasin, Hannah Thatcher, and Jayna Wanamaker for help with field work and logistics. ADW was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grant 1804528, CCU by NSF grant 1804132, the Ocean Climate Change Institute and James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship for Climate-Related Research at WHOI, RFD by the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, NSF grant 1804635, and Cornell College, YA and VP by NSF grant 1806025, DPG by NSF grant 1805163, and JAH by NSF grants BCS-0455145, BCS-0612923, and BCS-1118155. We thank the CESM Paleoclimate Working Group for running and making available the model output for the CESM1 (CAM5) Last Millennium Ensemble Community Project and acknowledge supercomputing resources provided by NSF/CISL/Yellowstone. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, HadSLP2r, 20th Century Reanalysis provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, through their website http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/psd, and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research, and by the NOAA Climate Program Office. Thanks to Natalie Renier (WHOI Graphics) for help with the design of Fig. 2. Sampling performed under the auspices of IGESPAR (to JAH) and Associação de Estudos Subterrâneos e Defesa do Ambiente. Comments by two anonymous reviewers on an earlier version of the manuscript are gratefully acknowledged.

Funding

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported, in part, by NSF grant 1804528 (ADW), NSF grant 1804132 (CCU), the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research and NSF grant 1804635 (RFD), NSF grant 1806025 (YA and VP), NSF grant 1805163 (DPG), and NSF grants BCS-0455145, BCS-0612923, and BCS-1118155 (JAH), and the Ocean Climate Change Institute and James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship for Climate-Related Research at WHOI (CCU).

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Fieldwork was performed by DLT, ADW, RFD, JH, DPG. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by DLT, ADW, RFD, CCU, NC, VJP, YA. The first draft of the manuscript was written by DLT and ADW and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Diana L. Thatcher.

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Thatcher, D.L., Wanamaker, A.D., Denniston, R.F. et al. Iberian hydroclimate variability and the Azores High during the last 1200 years: evidence from proxy records and climate model simulations. Clim Dyn 60, 2365–2387 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06427-6

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