The Daily Shot® Brief

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The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index rose this month, signaling an improvement in US factory activity. This report contrasts with the earlier data from the New York Fed.

Japan: Inflation eased last month.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough month for cryptos, with several altcoins underperforming bitcoin.

Equities: Micorcaps’ underperformance worsened this week.

Food for Thought: Highest-grossing music festivals:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Commodities: Crude oil prices declined on Wednesday as traders unwound some of the geopolitical risk premium while US stockpiles continue to grow.

The United States: Mortgage applications remain well below last year’s levels.

The United Kingdom: The UK CPI figures for March were a bit higher than anticipated.

Rates: Some traders are betting that the economy and inflation will weaken significantly in the months ahead, forcing the Fed to deliver three rate cuts.

Global Development: Global inflation is much stickier than in the past.

Equities: The put/call ratio surged this week.

Food for Thought: US military’s R&D expenditure by department:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: The US manufacturing sector showed further signs of a rebound, with the March gain in factory output topping expectations.

The United Kingdom: Wage growth remains elevated, topping forecasts.

China: Residential housing activity:

Commodities: Fund managers have been boosting their allocations to commodities.

Equities: Speculative shares underperformed sharply in recent days.

Rates: Treasuries remain under pressure.

Food for Thought: Fast food price inflation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Here are the March changes in retail sales by sector.

The Eurozone: The euro continues to move lower relative to the US dollar as indicators of inflation surprises diverge.

Equities: Sentiment has deteriorated sharply. Here is Goldman’s “panic index.”

The S&P 500 has experienced multiple expansion despite high real bond yields.

Commodities: Rice futures surged as Indian rice exporters expressed concerns about their ability to transport the commodity.

Energy: Technicals suggest Brent oil is overbought, although not yet extreme compared to prior peaks.

Cryptocurrency: The proportion of total bitcoin mining revenue compared to BTC trading volume has persistently declined after prior halvings. This may suggest that miner influence on price action has waned.

Food for Thought: Tesla and BYD EV sales:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Inflation expectations moved higher as gasoline prices increased.

The latest US upside inflation surprise stands out among advanced economies.

The Eurozone: Eurozone wage growth is expected to slow later this year.

Europe: Speculative accounts are increasing their bets against the Swiss franc in anticipation of further rate cuts by the SNB.

China: Beijing announced more measures to support the equity market, sending stocks higher.

Equities: Volatility skew jumped on Friday amid market jitters.

Commodities: Coffee continues to surge.

Food for Thought:  Leading coffee exporting countries to the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: US inflation has been surprising to the upside in recent months.

The United Kingdom: The 10-year gilt yield hit the highest level since November.

China: Economic growth is improving.

Commodities: Coffee futures continue to climb.

Energy: European natural gas has been rising as Russia targets Ukraine’s natural gas storage facilities.

Equities: High-dividend stocks are now much more exposed to rates than the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: Gen Z now outnumbers baby boomers.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has collapsed. Will we see any rate reductions at all this summer?

Equities: The rally has been partly driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, many of which are no longer anticipated.

Emerging Markets: Traders have been shorting dollar-denominated EM debt.

Canada: The BoC signaled a possible rate cut in June.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s exports surprised to the upside.

Commodities: Copper continues to rally.

Food for Thought: Property tax revenue per person, by state:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Which industries have the highest percentage of firms reporting job vacancies?

The United Kingdom: This chart presents the latest UK voting intention poll results.

Commodities: Central banks loaded up on gold after the recent Russia/Ukraine war.

Equities: The short end of the volatility curve inverted sharply ahead of the CPI report.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is holding long-term support within an uptrend.

Food for Thought: Rising retirement savings targets among Americans:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The Eurozone: Euro-area investor confidence continues to strengthen.

Commodities: Iron ore futures are attempting a rebound.

Holdings of gold and silver ETFs have diverged.

Energy: Global oil stockpiles have been shrinking, which could put upward pressure on prices.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s vehicle sales were up 44.5% relative to 2023 levels in March.

Food for Thought: Rising popularity of “.AI” domains in search trends compared to “.COM” domains:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The unemployment rate declined.

The United Kingdom: Construction activity is back in growth territory.

Japan: Short-term bond yields continue to climb.

Commodities: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on gold.

Equities: The options market signals rising complacency.

Food for Thought: Shifts in religious affiliation among US adults since childhood:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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