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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB
To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: August 4, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: 

As the creator, EP, writer and star of ABC’s comedy, Quinta Brunson has become the newest Hollywood success tale. As the first Black woman to be nominated for comedy series, lead actress and writing in the same year, she’ll likely walk away with something. Trying to topple Jean Smart’s front-runner status won’t be easy, but if the show is making a run for the biggest category, every possibility is on the table.

Issa Rae continues to tack on multiple Emmy nominations yearly, shown by three in 2020 and two in 2021. So with two again — as an executive producer on “A Black Lady Sketch Show” for variety sketch and her role in the final season of “Insecure” — could voters finally reward this eight-time nominee who has yet to take home a trophy?

You had us at “Hacks.” Since winning her fourth statuette for her role in the HBO Max dramedy, many pundits have assumed we should prepare for a Jean Smart Emmy run that will mimic Julia Louis Dreyfus’ historic streak with “Veep” — meaning she would win until the show was off the air. With the series overperforming with the TV Academy and with four previous wins, until proven otherwise, print the nameplate now to save time.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

Five nominations later and a win for the first season of the Amazon Prime Video comedy, Rachel Brosnahan has proven to be an Emmy darling. Miriam “Midge” Maisel has been a critical favorite from the very start. As the penultimate season eyes love during phase two, nostalgia may kick in, leading to a win this year or for the final season. Her chances may be better next time around.

The talented Elle Fanning was a double treat this year, executive producing and starring in “The Girl From Plainville,” which helped push her into this lineup. Her work as Catherine the Great sliding in indicates the show’s support, especially with Nicholas Hoult also getting a nom. However, without a series nom and the likes of Jean Smart dominating, she’ll need to wait before getting up to the stage. We presume this is the first of many.

The executive producer and star of HBO Max’s adaptation of the best-selling novel, Kaley Cuoco had an impressive showing at the 2021 Emmys with two noms. While the sophomore season certainly foundered, at least in the awards buzz department, the former “Big Bang Theory” star was one of two returning women to the lineup. Her nom is likely her award, especially since many feel she elbowed Selena Gomez out of the race.

The complete television awards season calendar is linked here.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub

The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

2021 category winner: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Issa Rae was photographed for Variety at the PMC Studio in July 2022 Dan Doperalski for Variety

And The Nominees Are:
Rank Actor Role Show and Network
1 Jean Smart Deborah Vance “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Episode submission: “The Click”
2 Quinta Brunson Janine Teagues “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Episode submission: “Pilot”
3 Issa Rae Issa “Insecure” (HBO)
Episode submission: “Reunited, Okay?!”
4 Rachel Brosnahan Miriam ‘Midge’ Maisel “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
Episode submission: “How Do You Get to Carnegie Hall?”
5 Elle Fanning Catherine The Great “The Great” (Hulu)
Episode submission: “Alone at Last”
6 Kaley Cuoco Cassie Bowden “The Flight Attendant” (HBO Max)
Episode submission: “Drowning Women”

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actress Comedy)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won this award seven times, the most of any actress, six of which were consecutive for “Veep,” almost the entire run of the series. Candice Bergen and Mary Tyler Moore have won this prize five times over their careers. “Veep” and “Murphy Brown” have been the most nominated series for lead actress comedy.

For nominations: Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the most nominated actress with 12 with Mary Tyler Moore and Bea Arthur behind with 10 and nine.

“The Golden Girls” is the most nominated series with 15 nominations over its run, with “Cheers” behind it with nine.

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.
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